A decrease in global population is not a desirable outcome
In a thought-provoking article published by the Wall Street Journal, economists Dean Spears and Michael Geruso argue that reversing the global decline in birth rates is urgent due to the potential risks it poses to social progress, innovation, and even humanity's long-term survival [1][2].
The economists, in their book After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, examine global birthrate declines and project that if fertility rates fall to the current U.S. level (about 1.6 children per woman), the world population will peak around 10.2 billion around 2080 and then enter a long-term steep decline [1][2]. This scenario, they warn, could lead to a rapid depopulation scenario—a two-thirds population decrease every century—that would undermine humanity’s ability to sustain technological and social advancement, and erode economic and social structures that depend on stable or growing populations [1][2].
The central argument of Spears and Geruso is that "more people is a good thing in and of itself," emphasizing that population decline is not just a demographic issue but also a fundamental threat to the progress and ongoing dynamism of human civilization [1]. They caution that depopulation risks could be as consequential as pandemics, wars, or climate disasters [1].
While Spears and Geruso do not propose a fixed policy solution, their work aims to shift the conversation, highlighting the need to understand the full implications of demographic decline and to explore ways to sustain or increase birth rates to avoid the negative consequences of shrinking populations [1][2][4].
The advocacy for reversing the global birth rate decline is in response to the declining birth rates worldwide. However, the article does not provide specific reasons why an increase in population is beneficial or details about the specific economists advocating for this increase [3].
It is important to note that the Wall Street Journal's article on this topic requires JavaScript for optimal use. Readers are advised to adjust their settings to enable JavaScript for the best experience on the NZZ.ch website [5].
The article does not discuss any potential downsides or controversies related to population growth, nor does it provide any data or statistics about the current or projected global population [6]. The decline in birth rates is a global issue, as stated in the article [2].
In summary, the arguments and conclusions presented by Spears and Geruso focus on the dangers of ongoing global fertility declines—social, economic, and philosophical—and make the urgent case that encouraging population growth or at least reversing rapid declines is critical for maintaining human progress and societal stability in the future [1][2][4].
What if the decline in global birth rates could impact financial stability and investing opportunities due to potential issues with worker shortages and diminished consumer markets? In this scenario, investing and finance could become even more reliant on technological advancements to maintain growth and sustain business operations.
