Agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) growth projected to slow down to 4.5% in the first quarter of FY26, according to ICRA's forecast.

Agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) growth projected to slow down to 4.5% in the first quarter of FY26, according to ICRA's forecast.

The first quarter of the Financial Year 2025-26 has seen a slight moderation in the agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) growth, as predicted by the rating agency ICRA. The projected GVA growth for this quarter is expected to be 4.5%, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter [1][2][4].

This slight slowdown in agricultural GVA growth is anticipated to have an impact on rural incomes accordingly [2]. The figures can attract more investment into the agri and rural sectors, as they indicate a stable and growing agricultural economy.

The rainfall pattern in July 2025 followed an interesting trend. The first half of the month saw rainfall that was 11% above the Long Period Average (LPA), while the second half saw a dip, with rainfall being 0.5% below the LPA [3][6]. Despite the dip in the second half, the total rainfall for the month was still 105% of the LPA, slightly lower than the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast for above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA) [5].

The progress of the monsoon was slow in early-June 2025, with the pan-India rainfall remaining deficient at 69% of LPA until June 15, 2025. However, thereafter, excess rainfall at 133% of LPA was seen during June 16-30, 2025 [7].

The area sown under pulses as of July 25 stood at 72% of the normal area. On a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis, sowing of pulses has increased by 3.5%, led by moong (+16.1%) [8]. However, the acreage under oilseeds contracted by 2.2% YoY, led by sunflower (-5.1%), soybean (-3.8%), and niger (-86.4%) [8].

ICRA's report also states that moong, rice, and maize have witnessed healthy growth in sowing [6]. The outlook of the rating agency remains robust, supported by strong output from rabi and most summer crops.

The IMD expects above-normal rainfall during August-September 2025 for Kharif crops [5]. However, the distribution of rainfall across the country needs to be monitored during the rest of the season. The impact of the monsoon on the agriculture sector needs to be closely monitored as well.

In conclusion, while the agricultural sector has shown some signs of moderation in growth, the overall outlook remains positive, supported by healthy crop growth and excess rainfall during certain periods. The distribution of rainfall and the progress of the monsoon will be crucial factors to watch in the coming months.

[1] ICRA Report, Q1 FY2025-26 Agricultural GVA Growth Projections [2] ICRA Report, Impact of Agricultural GVA Growth on Rural Incomes [3] IMD Report, July 2025 Rainfall Analysis [4] Agriculture Ministry Report, Q1 FY2025-26 Agricultural GVA Growth [5] IMD Forecast, July 2025 Rainfall [6] ICRA Report, Crop Sowing Trends in July 2025 [7] IMD Report, June 2025 Rainfall Analysis [8] Agriculture Ministry Report, Sowing Trends as of July 25, 2025

1. The business news this week includes ICRA's report on the agricultural GVA growth, highlighting a slight moderation in the first quarter of Financial Year 2025-26.
2. The culture section features a discussion on the monsoon progress in India, with the second half of July 2025 experiencing below-average rainfall, yet still fairly close to the Long Period Average.
3. In the health and food sector, sowing of moong, rice, and maize has been reported as healthy, according to ICRA's recent crop sowing trends report.
4. Financial analysts are keeping a close eye on the opinion pieces surrounding the agricultural sector, with many expressing optimism about the sector's positive outlook despite some signs of moderation in growth.

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