Anticipated growth rate for Q1 GDP stands at 2.2%
Turkey's economy showed a tentative rebound in the first quarter of 2025, with an estimated growth rate of 2.17 percent compared to the same period the previous year, according to a poll of 16 economists conducted by Anadolu Agency. The expected growth range varied between 1.5 and 3.2 percent among the participating economists.
In the first quarter of 2024, the expansion reached 5.4 percent, while the growth rate hedged to 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) is set to disclose the first quarter growth data on May 30.
According to the government's medium-term program, Turkey's GDP growth is projected to pick up from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 4 percent in 2025, with the size of the economy expected to hit $1.47 trillion and per capita income rising to $17,028. The European Commission anticipates the Turkish economy to expand by 2.8 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2026, whilst the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a 2.8 percent growth in 2025 and a subsequent acceleration to 3.5 percent in 2026.
International forecasts, such as the EBRD's and the European Commission's, generally indicate a moderate growth outlook for Turkey in 2025–2026, with slightly varying projections. Long-term econometric models, like those employed by Trading Economics, project more modest growth rates, with an average of about 1.1 percent in 2026 and further deceleration to 0.9 percent in 2027. However, it is worth noting that the forecasts by the EBRD and the European Commission are widely considered the gold standard for official reporting.
Businesses in Turkey might find investing in the economy appealing with the projected GDP growth of 4% in 2025, as stated in the government's medium-term program. The Finance Ministry could benefit from increased taxes and stimulus spending as a result of the strengthening economy.
