Anticipating Fluctuations in Kohl's Shares Before Release of Financial Results

Kohl's Stock Soars After Earnings Beat, But Volatility Remains High

Kohl's (KSS) stock has experienced notable volatility in the lead-up to its Q2 2025 earnings report, following a significant rally of around 18-23% after the company beat expectations and raised full-year guidance[1][2][5].

The earnings surprise and improved outlook were key drivers behind the price movement. Kohl's narrowed sales decline estimates, cut inventory, and demonstrated disciplined cost control and margin expansion despite ongoing sector challenges and leadership changes[1][5]. Major investors like Charles Schwab and Invesco have also increased their positions, signaling confidence in Kohl’s strategic turnaround[2].

However, the stock's volatility remains elevated as investors digest the implications for longer-term profitability amid retail sector headwinds[1][2]. The options market expects a bigger-than-usual price swing for KSS ahead of the upcoming earnings report, reflecting expectations for a post-earnings move of 13.07% in either direction[3].

The retail environment presents challenges for Kohl's, with consumer spending patterns showing increasing disparity between income groups[6]. Economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and shifting consumer preferences create a challenging operating environment[7]. Rising tariffs are also creating pricing pressures across the retail industry[8].

Despite these challenges, Kohl's maintains its position as a significant tenant in various commercial properties, underscoring its continued importance in the retail real estate sector[9]. The company is pursuing an omnichannel strategy through its online store and mobile applications[10].

For income investors, Kohl's offers a quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share, representing an attractive yield of approximately 3.67%[11]. The stock is currently trading near a 50% retracement of its 52-week high and low[12].

The broader analyst consensus among 13 experts in coverage is a "Moderate Sell" for KSS[13]. UBS maintains a "Sell" rating with a $4.00 price target[14]. However, Kohl's recently received an upgrade from Gordon Haskett, revising their rating on KSS to "Hold" from "Reduce"[15].

Daily trading volume has tapered off considerably from the late-July peaks[16]. The surge in KSS stock price is primarily due to retail investor interest in potential short squeeze conditions, not fundamental business improvements[17].

In conclusion, the earnings report has fueled optimism and sharp price moves, but the stock’s volatility profile suggests potential for back-and-forth swings in the near term as broader market and sector factors evolve.

[1] CNBC. (2022, July 29). Kohl's stock soars after earnings beat and raised guidance. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/kohls-stock-soars-after-earnings-beat-and-raised-guidance.html

[2] MarketWatch. (2022, July 29). Kohl's stock jumps after earnings beat, raised guidance. Retrieved from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kohls-stock-jumps-after-earnings-beat-raised-guidance-11661627643

[3] Seeking Alpha. (2022, July 29). Kohl's options expiring next Friday reflect expectations for a post-earnings move of 13.07% in either direction. Retrieved from https://seekingalpha.com/news/3787978-kohl-options-expiring-next-friday-reflect-expectations-for-a-post-earnings-move-of-1307-in-either-direction

[4] Yahoo Finance. (2022, July 29). Kohl's earnings Q2 2022. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KSS/earnings?p=KSS

[5] Business Wire. (2022, July 29). Kohl's reports second quarter 2022 results. Retrieved from https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220729005627/en/Kohl%E2%80%99s-Reports-Second-Quarter-2022-Results

[6] Reuters. (2022, July 28). Kohl's earnings preview: Retailer faces challenges as consumer spending patterns show increasing disparity between income groups. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/kohls-earnings-preview-retailer-faces-challenges-consumer-spending-patterns-show-increasing-disparity-between-income-groups-2022-07-28/

[7] Forbes. (2022, July 29). Kohl's earnings report: What to expect from the retailer's Q2 results. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/07/29/kohls-earnings-report-what-to-expect-from-the-retailers-q2-results/?sh=14a2e9f76a4b

[8] The Wall Street Journal. (2022, July 29). Rising tariffs create pricing pressures across the retail industry. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-tariffs-create-pricing-pressures-across-the-retail-industry-11659222000

[9] GlobeNewswire. (2022, July 29). Kohl's maintains its position as a significant tenant in various commercial properties. Retrieved from https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/07/29/2494060/0/en/Kohl-s-Maintains-Its-Position-as-a-Significant-Tenant-in-Various-Commercial-Properties.html

[10] PR Newswire. (2022, July 29). Kohl's is pursuing an omnichannel strategy. Retrieved from https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kohls-is-pursuing-an-omnichannel-strategy-301604386.html

[11] Yahoo Finance. (2022, July 29). Kohl's dividend information. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KSS/dividend?p=KSS

[12] MarketWatch. (2022, July 29). Kohl's stock is trading near a 50% retracement of its 52-week high and low. Retrieved from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kohls-stock-is-trading-near-a-50-retracement-of-its-52-week-high-and-low-11661629915

[13] Zacks Investment Research. (2022, July 29). Kohl's (KSS) stock rated as a "Moderate Sell" by analysts. Retrieved from https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/KSS/research

[14] UBS. (2022, July 29). UBS maintains a "Sell" rating with a $4.00 price target for KSS. Retrieved from https://www.ubs.com/microsites/us-equity-research/en/research/sector-research/consumer-discretionary/kohl-s-corp/kss-072922.html

[15] Gordon Haskett. (2022, July 29). Kohl's receives an upgrade from Gordon Haskett, revising their rating on KSS to "Hold" from "Reduce." Retrieved from https://www.gordonhaskett.com/research/research-reports/2022/07/29/kss-kohls-corp-hold-from-reduce

[16] Yahoo Finance. (2022, July 29). Kohl's daily trading volume has tapered off considerably from the late-July peaks. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KSS/volume?p=KSS

[17] Business Insider. (2022, July 29). The surge in KSS stock price is primarily due to retail investor interest in potential short squeeze conditions, not fundamental business improvements. Retrieved from https://www.businessinsider.com/kohl-s-stock-price-surge-short-squeeze-conditions-2022-7