Assessment of Potential Economic Impact from Polish-Belarusian Border Shutdown by EU
Poland is currently seeking Chinese assistance to prevent further Belarusian provocations at the border and resume normal border crossing operations. This announcement was made by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
The Polish Ministry of Interior has admitted that carriers are experiencing logistical difficulties due to the border closure, which was initiated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk on September 12 in response to increasing provocations from Russia and Belarus. The border closure could potentially paralyze trade between the EU and China, as ninety percent of rail cargo between the EU and China, valued at 25 billion euros annually, passes through the Polish-Belarusian border.
Ulof Gills, Deputy Chief Spokesperson of the European Commission, has stated that the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border is a security issue. The European Commission is proceeding cautiously to avoid appearing critical of Poland, and is trying to assess the potential economic consequences of closing all border crossing points between Poland and Belarus.
Gills has emphasized that any trade disruptions resulting from the security situation are due to Russia's war. He also stated that they are closely monitoring the situation but it's too early to delve into details.
In a recent development, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Warsaw on September 15 to discuss the blockage of transit crucial for Chinese goods. Poland is in contact with Gills to examine all aspects of the issue, but the Polish Ministry of Interior has not mentioned any alternative routes, unlike in a previous statement where they proposed using the Belarus-Lithuania border crossing as an alternative route.
The Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryschenkow has stated that the Polish-Belarusian border will likely reopen after the conclusion of the "Sapad-2025" military exercises. He expects Poland to have "no other choice" but to reopen the border following these maneuvers. However, the Polish Minister of Interior, Marcin Kierwiński, has stated that the border will only reopen when Poland is 100% certain that the situation no longer poses any threat.
The duration of the border closure is still unknown, which means losses will not be assessed yet, according to the Polish Ministry of Interior. Once the duration of the border closure is known, losses will be assessed, as stated by the Polish Ministry of Interior.
In conclusion, the Polish-Belarusian border remains closed, and the situation is being closely monitored by both the Polish authorities and the European Commission. China is seeking assistance to resolve the issue and prevent further disruptions to trade between the EU and China. The Polish Ministry of Interior has proposed using the Belarus-Lithuania border crossing as an alternative route, but no definitive decision has been made yet. The border will only reopen when Poland is certain that the situation no longer poses a threat.
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