Berenberg Picks BASF, Linde, K+S for Profitability Amidst Falling Commodity Prices in 2026
Berenberg analysts have identified BASF, Linde, and K+S as core companies poised for profitability despite expected lower commodity prices in 2026. Meanwhile, they caution about long-term risks in cocoa cultivation in the Ivory Coast and its impact on chocolate manufacturers.
Berenberg has set target stock prices of €70 for BASF, €330 for Linde, and €9 for K+S, anticipating their resilience amidst falling oil prices. Turning to cocoa, analysts warn of insufficient replanting and the spread of the CSSV plant virus in the Ivory Coast, which could disrupt supply.
Falling cocoa prices, expected to drop by 20 percent in the 2026 harvest year, will benefit chocolate manufacturers. Lindt & Sprüngli is tipped to be the main beneficiary, with its target price rising to 115,301 Swiss francs. Barry Callebaut, however, will see relief from deflated commodity costs only after the 2027 business year, with a 5 percent benefit.
Last year, cocoa prices soared to record highs due to poor harvests in West Africa. Berenberg expects Lindt & Sprüngli to enjoy a 7 percent relief in the 2026 business year as oil prices decrease. Mondelez, however, has been downgraded from 'Buy' to 'Hold' with a new price target of 70 dollars.
Berenberg's analysis highlights the profitability of certain core companies despite commodity price drops. Meanwhile, it underscores the risks and opportunities in the cocoa market, with chocolate manufacturers like Lindt & Sprüngli set to benefit from falling oil prices.
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