Bitcoin's phoenix-like recovery indicated by Swissblock, suggesting the crypto asset might surge further, and the altseason may have already commenced.
In a comprehensive analysis published mid-July 2025, Swissblock, a renowned cryptocurrency analysis firm, presents a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and suggests that an altcoin season may already be underway. The report, which draws on various on-chain fundamentals and proprietary indices, offers valuable insights into the current state of the crypto market.
### Bitcoin Analysis
Swissblock's BTC Fundamental Index indicates a return to on-chain strength, suggesting that the recent upward movement in Bitcoin's price is structurally supported rather than speculative. Currently trading at around $119,154, Bitcoin has increased nearly 10% in the last week. The Optimal Signal, based on BitcoinVector’s methodology, tracks rallies historically lasting 15 to 30 days; the current rally being just 12 days in suggests the uptrend is still in its early or mid phase, with more growth potential.
Despite the bullish outlook, behavioral and liquidity metrics do not show signs of overheated or euphoric markets typical of cycle tops. Historical models indicate that multiple peak momentum spikes can occur before an actual cycle top, implying room for continued gains even after recent highs. This view is supported by institutional interest, such as strong inflows into U.S-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate adoption trends.
### Altcoin Market and Altseason
The altcoin market has recently broken out of a multi-month consolidation, with the structure suggesting a classic 5-wave Elliott Wave pattern. Swissblock's altcoin Vector report indicates that metrics like Impulse (percentage of altcoins showing exponential strength) and Structure (breakout positions) are signaling the early phases of altseason. Capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins like Ethereum is noted, another hallmark of mid-cycle strength and a precursor to altseason.
The breakout in altcoins and pattern suggest that altseason might be "the last leg before the cycle peaks," which aligns with historical crypto market behavior. Swissblock's analysis projects an altcoin market cap target range between $1.79 trillion and $3.37 trillion.
### Relation to Elliott Wave Theory
Swissblock explicitly references the Elliott Wave Theory as the analytical framework for understanding current market phases. This theory posits that markets move in repetitive wave patterns driven by investor psychology. Their analysis suggests the altcoin market is currently in Wave 5, a final impulsive move usually characterized by rapid and vertical price increases. Historically, Wave 5 patterns in crypto have mirrored dramatic rise phases like those seen in 2017 and 2021. The theory helps Swissblock contextualize the breakout and momentum in altcoins, indicating strong but likely late-cycle bullish activity.
### Summary
Swissblock’s analysis blends on-chain data and behavioral metrics with Elliott Wave cyclical patterns to offer a comprehensive view of the current bullish momentum in Bitcoin and emerging altseason dynamics. The report provides valuable insights for investors seeking to navigate the crypto market during this potentially exciting period.
The Swissblock report, based on on-chain fundamentals, proprietary indices, and Elliott Wave Theory, predicts that the ongoing altcoin season could r strengthen, with the altcoin market cap likely targeting a range between $1.79 trillion and $3.37 trillion, thereby indicating a potential surge in altcoins like Ethereum. This bullish outlook for Bitcoin and altcoins is further supported by institutional interest and corporate adoption trends, despite some metrics not showing signs of overheated or euphoric markets.
