By 2030, the cost of a pint in the UK is predicted to skyrocket as a result of escalating inflation, according to a recent study.
The cost of a pint of lager in the UK is expected to increase significantly by 2030, continuing a trend that has seen prices rise over the past years. Between 2015 and 2023, the average price of a pint of draught lager rose by about 35%, reaching approximately £4.70 by the end of 2023[1].
While specific UK price predictions for 2030 are not detailed in the report, the global lager market growth and rising economic factors suggest further price increases. The report, conducted by the online review site PlayCasino, does not include the cost of inflation or outgoings for pubs as the cause for the predicted price increase[2].
Key factors contributing to the projected increase in the cost of a pint of lager by 2030 include:
- Inflation and input costs: Brewing ingredients, energy, and packaging materials tend to increase in cost over time, pushing retail prices higher.
- Premiumization trend: The global lager market shows strong growth in premium lager segments, which often have higher prices. This premium shift could influence average pricing in the UK as well.
- Market concentration and brand pricing power: The top global brewers hold a large market share, allowing them pricing control that can contribute to higher prices.
- Consumer disposable income and social behaviors: Increasing disposable income and socialization fuel demand, supporting higher prices.
- Sustainability preferences: The shift toward more eco-friendly packaging such as metal cans, which have higher recyclability but can also incur higher costs, may further impact prices.
The report predicts that the average price of a pint could reach £8 nationwide and £11 in cities by 2030. It also forecasts that the price of Peroni could rise from an average of £6.83 to £11.33, while San Miguel could rise from £6.36 to £10.55. Heineken will potentially rise from £6.00 to £9.95, and Stella Artois will potentially rise from £5.27 to £8.74[3].
In touristy zones and stadiums, £12 to £13 pints could become the norm. The cost of a pint of lager could potentially double by the year 2030, as many pubs are still catching up financially after the end of pandemic support. Increases to spiraling energy bills are also affecting pubs, with one landlord commenting that their energy bills have tripled, stock costs are up, and they are still recovering from the pandemic[4].
The report does not specify which cities will have the highest prices for pints by 2030, nor does it provide any information on the cost of other alcoholic beverages besides Peroni and San Miguel. Carlsberg will potentially rise from £4.23 to £7.02.
References:
[1] Office for National Statistics (2023). Average UK beer prices rise by 35% in the last eight years. [online] Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/may2023
[2] PlayCasino (2023). Report predicts average UK pint price could reach £8 by 2030. [online] Available at: https://www.playcasino.uk/news/report-predicts-average-uk-pint-price-could-reach-8-by-2030
[3] GlobalData (2023). Global lager market to grow at a CAGR of 4.56% between 2023 and 2032. [online] Available at: https://www.globaldata.com/news/global-lager-market-to-grow-at-a-cagr-of-4-56-between-2023-and-2032/
[4] BBC News (2023). Energy bills 'tripled' for one pub owner. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65035544
- The increasing costs of brewing ingredients, energy, and packaging materials, coupled with the growth of the premium lager market, could lead to significant changes in personal-finance budgeting for those who frequently enjoy a drink at pubs or bars.
- The forecasted rise in the price of popular lager brands such as Heineken, Stella Artois, Peroni, San Miguel, and even Carlsberg might necessitate a reevaluation of business expenses for pub owners, considering the potential doubling of pint prices by 2030.
