A Breeze of Change: Fossil Fuels Take Lead Over Renewables in Germany for First Time in Two Years
Conventional power surpasses levels not seen in past two years.
Step into 2025, and for the first time in two years, conventional energy sources have surpassed renewables in electricity generation in Germany. The main culprit? A stunning 29.2% drop in wind power generation, attributed to scant winds as reported by the Federal Statistical Office.
This shift in energy production led to a plunge of 17.0% in renewable energy generation between January and March, compared to the prior year, while coal, natural gas, and other fossil fuels saw a rise of 19.3%. The overall production of electricity stood at 119.4 billion kilowatt-hours for the first quarter, marking a 1.9% decrease in comparison to the beginning of 2024. Remarkably, half of the electricity generated in Germany (50.5%) came from fossil fuels, a stark contrast to the 41.5% share witnessed the preceding year.
In a surprising twist, wind power continued to lead the charge in electricity generation for the first quarter, claiming a share of 27.8%, closely trailed by coal with 27.0%. Natural gas accounted for an impressive 20.6%—more than double the share of the previous year. Photovoltaic power generation climbed by over a third, securing a 9.2% share, and biogas followed close behind with 6.1%, while hydropower presented a 3.8% share.
The first quarter of 2025 also brought a noticeable increase in electricity imports—a significant jump of 14.9% to 19.3 billion kilowatt-hours, while exports declined by 3% to 16.2 billion kilowatt-hours.
The decline in renewable energy generation in Germany during the first quarter was primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions and structural issues in the sector. Here's a breakdown:
- Unprecedented Low Wind Speeds:
- 2025 saw historically low wind speeds during the first quarter, with averages below 5.5 meters per second—the lowest in over half a century, according to the German Meteorological Service (DWD).
- As a result, wind power generation dropped by a substantial 31% compared to the same period last year.
- Solar Energy Plateau:
- The expansion of Germany's solar capacity remained flat, with merely 838.5 MW of new capacity installed in April 2025. This fell short of the monthly targets, posing a significant challenge to meet decarbonization goals.
- Lackluster demand for new rooftop PV systems and delays in approvals for large installations contributed to the stagnation of solar energy growth.
- Fossil Fuel Revival:
- With the decline in renewable energy production, more electricity was generated from fossil fuels in the first quarter than renewable sources, a development last seen in the first quarter of 2023.
- Growing Dependence on Fossil Fuels:
- The share of electricity from renewable energy sources fell to 49.5% in the first quarter of 2025, a significant decrease from 58.5% in the same period the previous year[3]. This slide was predominantly driven by the weather-induced reduction in wind power generation.
In light of the unfavorable weather conditions and structural issues within the sector, the community policy should consider revising the renewable energy industry's finance and energy policy to incentivize growth and sustainability. For example, implementing policies that promote the adoption of renewable energy, such as tax incentives for solar panel installations, could counter the growing dependence on fossil fuels and help bolster the renewable energy sector in the future.
