Delivery figures for Rivian predicted to plummet by 36% during the first quarter of 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian faced a significant drop in vehicle deliveries, marking a decrease of nearly 36% compared to the same period in 2024. This decline, combined with strategic shifts such as the announcement of their micromobility spin-off, Aslo, presents a complex landscape for the company.
Inventory Gap and Decline in Deliveries
The production figures for Q1 2025 were lower than the deliveries, with 8,640 units delivered compared to 14,611 vehicles produced. This production decline is attributed to ongoing bottlenecks and supply chain issues, exacerbated by external factors like tariffs and increased material costs. The phase-out of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit has also negatively impacted demand and leasing attractiveness.
Financial Challenges
Despite posting a 12.52% year-over-year revenue increase and achieving its first positive gross margin, Rivian still registers substantial losses. Predicted adjusted EBITDA losses for 2025 are between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, with a net loss per share wider than expected at -$0.97. Decreases in regulatory credit sales from $300 million to $160 million further pressure margins, while fuel economy-rule related revenue losses nearing $100 million add to regulatory challenges.
Strategic Shifts
To address delivery and production challenges, Rivian has announced capital expenditures of $1.8 to $1.9 billion to boost supply chain resilience and production capacity. One of the strategic moves is the announcement of Aslo, a micromobility spin-off aimed at urban electric vehicle solutions. This move indicates Rivian’s effort to capture new market segments and reduce reliance on traditional EV sales.
Upcoming Financial Results
Rivian will release its Q1 2025 financial results on May 6, following market close. The financial results presentation will not include any details about the Aslo project’s financial projections or performance. A live webcast for the financial results presentation is scheduled for 5:00 pm ET/2:00pm PT.
The Q1 2025 delivery shortfall was partially attributed to reduced commercial van shipments, which are no longer exclusive to Amazon and are now available to all customers. The Tesla referral link promotion, offering three months of Full Self-Driving (FSD) for new buyers, is not exclusive to Rivian customers.
Rivian reaffirmed its full-year guidance, targeting 46,000 to 51,000 vehicle deliveries in 2025. The company is balancing promising product developments and positive gross profit trends against operational, financial, and regulatory hurdles, aiming to navigate these challenges and secure a strong position in the EV market.
The complex landscape for Rivian, with the decline in vehicle deliveries and the introduction of their micromobility spin-off Aslo, could make the technology and finance sectors question the company's growth potential in the electric vehicle industry. The ongoing production decline, attributed to supply chain issues, tariffs, and material costs, as well as the phase-out of the federal EV tax credit, could increase the need for financial investments in addressing these challenges.
