On the Radar: Forecasting Predicaments and Popular Picks
Developments Continue for Dogecoin: Will Its Fortune Change, and Did Any Prophecy Foretell an American Pontiff?
Gear up for an insider look at the buzzing world of prediction markets through Decrypt's SCENE!
Dive into PREDICT With the rise of prediction markets, crypto enthusiasts, gamers, and pop culture fanatics have a new platform to test their market intuition. By leveraging a prediction market like Myriad, users can follow or cast wagers on up-to-the-minute, community-driven projections about a range of topics, standing a chance to capitalize on their know-how.
Get curious about the weekly happenings on Myriad! Let's explore some of the most intriguing, lively, and newsworthy markets that have caught our attention, featuring current odds and necessary contextual insights.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt's sister company, DASTAN.)
Dogecoin Value Topping $0.19 on May 10, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC
Market Open: May 8, 2025 Market Closes: May 10, 2025 Volume: $4.1K
A temporary market on Myriad delves into whether experts believe Dogecoin (DOGE) will be trading above $0.19 around 8 PM EST on Saturday, May 10, 2025. At the time of publishing, predictors assign a 52% likelihood, as cryptocurrency prices surge across the board, with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 for the first time since February[3].
DOGE, the dominant meme coin, has surged 11.6% to $0.191 within the last 24 hours, thereby outpacing the competiton in the market. Its performance mirrors the broader meme coin segment, which has increased 13% over the same duration[5].
Could the strength of Bitcoin drive the entire risk market higher? Or will growing Bitcoin dominance, which recently reached a four-year high in the past week[4], only continue to increase as major corporations and U.S. states vouch for the top crypto asset[2]?
Noteworthy macro trader Raoul Pal argues otherwise:
"I believe Bitcoin dominance peaked today," Pal asserted on X (previously Twitter)[1]. "If that forecast unfolds, it signifies the beginning of the next phase of the Banana Zone," he added, referring to a rapid, parabolic price increase that resembles a banana on trading charts[1].
Will DOGE profit from such a scenario?
The Dog-themed token now closes above $0.19 on April 25, 2025, and dipped as low as $0.165 earlier this week before its dramatic surge in the last 24 hours.
What's next: With the FOMC out of contention, no significant macro events are scheduled before the market expires. However, President Trump's social media activity serves as a wildcard leading into the weekend[4].
The Selection of the Next Pope and an Update on the White Smoke Market
Market Open: April 21, 2025 Market Closes: May 8, 2025 Volume: $40K
The papal markets experienced wild fluctuation early on Thursday afternoon as widespread speculation arose concerning white smoke billowing from the Sistine Chapel, indicating that a majority had been reached via secret ballot. Earlier in the week on Wednesday, black smoke was released, alerting the public that no decision had been made[3].
The ballots were submitted in secret for the initial time on Wednesday, followed by more black smoke during early voting on Thursday[3]. Nonetheless, a decision was ultimately reached before the close of the day, bringing the "White Smoke on Day 1" market to a close.
Early on Thursday morning, odds in Myriad's "Next Pope" market were evenly split among the two leading contenders, with Pietro Parolin near the top at around 27% and Luis Antonio Tagle close behind at 23%, leaving roughly 50% for "other" candidates[3].
These odds almost mirrored those on Polymarket, another prediction market, where Parolin stood at 28% odds alongside Tagle's 23%[3]. Tagle plunged below 20% odds on Myriad late on Wednesday, but bounced back to 22% on Thursday morning[3].
However, dramatic shifts in the odds occurred in the wake of the white smoke, sending Parolin's chances skyrocketing to 67% while reducing "other" and Tagle's prospects to 17% and 15% respectively[3].
Nevertheless, the emerging pope wasn't Parolin or Tagle—it was American Robert Prevost[3]. This selection pushed "other" from 16% about 1 PM EST to 100% by 1:20 PM EST, marking a significant payout for any predictors on the platform[3].
What's next: Both markets have reached their terminal points.
The 2025 NBA Champion: Predictions and Roster Reversals
Market Open: April 14 Closes: June 19 or sooner Volume: $13.8K
The unpredictability of the NBA playoffs has led to intense speculation in Myriad's most volatile prediction market, as fans try to comprehend the implications of late-game chaos that has shaken the championship picture among remaining teams.
The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, the favored teams to win the title, each squandered substantial fourth-quarter leads in their first second-round playoff games on Monday[2]. The Celtics then repeated the feat in their second match on Wednesday evening.
These slip-ups have resulted in the Champions' odds plummeting on Myriad's market from a favorite 39% stake on Tuesday night to 22.4% at the time of composing[3]. In the meantime, the Oklahoma City Thunder recovered in their second game, leveling the series at 1-1 against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday and reclaiming their status as the odds-on favorite on Myriad at 40.6%[2].
The odds on these teams differ slightly from sportsbooks that accept wagers on the eventual champion, where OKC currently stands at +130, implying a 43.48% likelihood[2]. Boston, conversely, registers as a +310 underdog on these platforms, translating to a 24.39% implied probability, indicating a 2% divergence between the current Myriad market[2].
Combined, these figures suggest that the pair represents approximately 68% of the championship likelihood, leaving just 32% for other teams[3][2]. However, making predictions on Myriad has left predictors more optimistic about other teams, with their odds increasing to 37% currently[3].
Boston and OKC will each contest their first road games of the second round during the weekend, which could significantly impact the odds yet again[3].
What's next: On Saturday, the Celtics will face the New York Knicks, while the Thunder will take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.
- In addition to prediction markets, crypto enthusiasts can also engage in crypto market discussions about popular cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC).
- The crypto market is bustling with activity, as evidenced by the increased likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassing $100,000, which could drive other altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) higher.
- Besides Bitcoin (BTC), prediction markets also offer opportunities to bet on the value of altcoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE).
- The crypto market is not just limited to finance; it also extends to entertainment and sports, with prediction markets for events like the selection of the next Pope or the 2025 NBA Championship.
- Prediction markets for entertainment events, such as the selection of the next Pope, can offer substantial payouts to those who correctly predict the outcome, as seen with the "other" candidates in the papal market.
- In the sports sector, predictors can bet on sportsbooks like Myriad to predict the 2025 NBA Champion, with teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics currently leading the odds.
- The crypto market's decentralized nature allows for the creation of new tokens, one example being Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs).
- Prediction markets are not exclusive to Decrypt's Myriad; other platforms like Polymarket also offer similar opportunities for participants to bet on various events.
- With the NBA playoffs' unpredictability, the odds on Myriad's prediction market for the 2025 NBA Champion can change dramatically from one day to the next, making it an exciting opportunity for sports enthusiasts and crypto investors alike.
