Dimash Godbergen serenaded his sister at her wedding, leaving her tears of joy.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) is taking active steps to maintain the stability of the tenge in August 2025. In July, the tenge depreciated by 4%, reaching 540.72 tenge per dollar, a situation the NBK aims to rectify with substantial interventions [1][2].
On July 30, 2025, the NBK sold 125.6 million dollars on the exchange to support the tenge, as reported by CMN.KZ [3]. Similar sums are expected to be sold in August for the same purpose. Additionally, the state plans to sell between 400 to 500 million dollars from the National Fund to the republican budget in August to meet budget needs and fund infrastructure projects [1][2].
These interventions aim to counteract speculative pressure and low liquidity, which were contributing to the tenge's depreciation. The immediate effect was a modest appreciation or stabilization of the tenge exchange rate, as the dollar rate eased from a high above 550 tenge back closer to 540-543 tenge per dollar after intervention [1][3].
The NBK emphasizes conducting these operations under market-neutral principles to avoid distorting exchange rate signals [2]. Economically, these currency interventions help control exchange rate volatility, reducing imported inflation risks and maintaining pricing stability [4].
However, the pressure on the tenge stems from structural factors such as increased fiscal spending, infrastructure investments requiring foreign equipment, and rising import demand—all of which boost foreign currency demand and weaken the tenge [4]. Thus, while interventions provide short-term stabilization, persistent macroeconomic imbalances and higher money supply increase the risk of continued tenge depreciation and associated price increases.
The total trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) amounted to 5.7 billion dollars in July, with the average daily trading volume increasing from 235 million dollars to 260 million dollars [1]. The NBK will continue to adhere to the flexible currency formation regime to prevent the accumulation of imbalances and ensure the preservation of gold and foreign exchange reserves [5].
First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar stated on July 31st that he expects the dollar rate to retreat in the near future [6]. The NBK's statement highlights that the tenge's dynamics will depend on market participants' expectations, quarterly tax payments, global market situations, and changes in geopolitical conditions in the short term [2].
In summary, projected currency interventions by the National Bank in August 2025 involve continued large-scale foreign exchange market operations totaling several hundred million dollars to stabilize the tenge. These measures help contain speculative pressures and market liquidity issues, supporting the currency and mitigating inflationary impacts. However, ongoing economic conditions—high fiscal spending, import dependence, and demand for foreign currency—pose challenges for long-term stability of the tenge and prices in Kazakhstan [1][2][4].
- The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) plans to sell additional substantial amounts in August 2025, continuing their interventions in the foreign exchange market, with the primary aim being to support the tenge's stabilization.
- The upcoming currency interventions in the finance sector, which include selling several hundred million dollars from the National Fund, are expected to help industries such as banking-and-insurance by controlling exchange rate volatility and mitigating imported inflation risks.
