Economist proposes imminent and significant devaluation of the ruble
In a chat with NEWS.ru, economist Nikolai Razumov hinted that the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate could reach around 100 by the end of August. He explained that the economy can't thrive without devaluation, and a strong ruble would lead to recession.
"The budget won't make it due to cheap oil," Razumov said. "The Middle East is off the table, and a strong ruble is really bad news. The budget deficit is already at 4 trillion. Some say it will soon reach 8. So without devaluation, it's not gonna happen," he added.
Razumov also alluded to a recent prediction made by Sberbank's CEO, German Gref, who labeled the exchange rate as "100 plus."
"I believe 100 rubles per dollar will satisfy everyone," the economist guessed. "I'm confident it'll happen in July-August. But mark August 31 as a sure bet for a rate around 100 rubles," he predicted.
He also warned that a weaker ruble could stir inflation, but it won't lead to a significant increase, and there might even be a weekly deflation during the summer.
"Weakened national currency will, of course, fuel price growth, but not much. During the summer, inflation typically decreases due to the harvest season," Razumov summarized.
While Razumov provided insights about the exchange rate, historical or specific predictions for the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate for August 2022 were not found in the search results. However, the volatile yet steadily stabilizing economic environment in Russia, influenced by inflation control and geopolitical challenges, was discussed in the sources [5][3]. Keep tabs to stay in the loop!
The economist Nikolai Razumov anticipates the exchange rate to reach 100 rubles per dollar by August, further hinting at the need for devaluation due to financial constraints in the budget. He also believes that a weaker ruble, while fueling price growth, won't significantly increase inflation during the summer, and there might even be weekly deflation.
