Escalating Conflicts in the specified region contribute to an increased Cyprus Conflict Risk Level
In early 2025, the Cyprus Problem Risk Index, compiled by Sapienta Economics, has risen to 2.58, moving back into the upper half of the "medium risk" band. This increase is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions related to the conflict between Israel and Iran, which raises the risk of an attack specifically targeting the British Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs) in Cyprus.
The Cyprus Problem, an ongoing dispute between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities, is a complex issue that the index aims to address. Built from 10 core factors, it takes into account the unpredictable nature of regional developments and their potential impact on Cyprus. Key factors include military activity in the buffer zone and offshore, regional geopolitics, particularly Turkey's relations, and the state of UN-led peace negotiations.
One of the most concerning developments is the fears of an attack on the SBAs, which are located on the island of Cyprus. These fears are heightened due to tensions between Iran and Israel. The recent arrest of an alleged Iranian Revolutionary Guard member accused of spying on the SBAs has further escalated these concerns.
Another factor contributing to the rise in the index is the reduction in the UN's missions in Cyprus. Both the peacekeeping UNFICYP and the peacemaking Good Offices Mission are facing budget cuts, which could erode the stability in the UN-monitored buffer zone. Although the buffer zone remains relatively stable compared to previous periods, reductions in UN presence reduce diplomatic and peacekeeping effectiveness.
Fiona Mullen, Director of Sapienta Economics, has warned that attempts by some countries to suggest that Cyprus or the British bases are involved in attacks on Iran raise the risk of a direct attack on the island. She emphasises the critical role the UN's missions play in maintaining peace and dialogue in Cyprus.
The Cyprus Problem Risk Index also includes the "Curveball" category for sudden, high-risk developments not captured in traditional modelling. The risk of an attack on the British bases is considered a Curveball risk.
As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, it is crucial to monitor the Cyprus Problem Risk Index for any further changes. The index serves as a valuable tool for understanding the complex political and security landscape of Cyprus and the potential risks it faces.
- The Cyprus Problem Risk Index, a tool compiled by Sapienta Economics, takes into account the unpredictable nature of regional developments, such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which poses a significant risk to the British Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs) located in Cyprus.
- Fiona Mullen, Director of Sapienta Economics, has cautioned that the heightened geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel could result in a direct attack on Cyprus, given speculation by some countries about potential Cypriot or British bases involvement in attacks on Iran.
- Another contributing factor to the rise in the Cyprus Problem Risk Index is the reduction in UN missions in Cyprus, including both the peacekeeping UNFICYP and the peacemaking Good Offices Mission, which face budget cuts, potentially weakening diplomatic and peacekeeping efforts in the island.
- The Cyprus Problem Risk Index addresses the ongoing dispute between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities, influenced by factors like military activity in the buffer zone, regional geopolitics, and the state of UN-led peace negotiations.
- The Cyprus Problem Risk Index includes a "Curveball" category for sudden, high-risk developments not captured in traditional modeling, with the risk of an attack on the British SBAs on Cyprus being considered a Curveball risk.
