Escalating plastic manufacture jeopardizes United Nations targets
In an effort to address the growing concern of plastic pollution, the United Nations has been spearheading negotiations for a legally binding international treaty aimed at managing plastic waste across its entire lifecycle. The treaty, currently under discussion, seeks to reduce plastic production, enhance circularity, and decarbonise plastic production [1].
One of the key strategies is to minimise plastic production by reducing overall output and cutting unnecessary use, particularly in wealthy countries. However, this goal faces significant challenges due to the expansion of petrochemical production, particularly in China. China's polymer consumption in 2019 was 76kg per person, not far from developed economy levels, and the demand for plastics in China, particularly in packaging, has significantly increased [2].
The expansion of petrochemical production in China is driven by a push for self-sufficiency in chemicals previously imported. For instance, Ethylene production in China nearly doubled from 2018 to 2020, reaching 35 million metric tonnes. Oil companies are also increasing production of polymers, potentially undermining hopes for meaningful action on plastic waste [3].
This expansion is not limited to China alone. PetroChina Co has approved a $9.6 billion investment in a plastics plant, and another 33 million tons of ethylene production are expected to be added by 2030 from projects by Saudi Basic Industries Corp, Shell Plc, BASF AG, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) [3].
The impasse in the treaty negotiations highlights a major challenge: the expansion of petrochemical capacity is driving increased plastic production globally, despite urgent calls to curb plastic use because these countries have economic incentives to expand petrochemical industries, which provide feedstock for plastics. This conflict between economic interests of oil-producing nations and environmental goals complicates treaty negotiations and plastic pollution reduction efforts [3].
While the global treaty process remains ongoing, meaningful progress depends on reconciling these competing interests to align petrochemical production trends with plastic pollution reduction goals [2][3].
In addition to the challenges posed by increased production, waste management remains a significant issue. The world's governments are meeting to discuss a treaty aimed at reversing the rising tide of plastics. The EU, for instance, would be better set up than most to survive the shutdown of its virgin plastics processors, thanks to waste separation and recycling networks that are among the most sophisticated in the world [3].
However, plastic waste projections are rising, and limited global recycling capacity poses a challenge. The rise of electric vehicles could potentially increase the production of naphtha, a plastic feedstock, and about one-third of oil production in the US is not crude but NGLs, including ethane and propane, crucial building blocks for plastics [3].
The US is expected to increase its ethane exports by about 30% next year, due to new plastics plants under construction in Asia and a special exemption from tariff barriers. Ethylene production capacity is so excessive that as much as 55 million tonnes might have to close, according to data compiled by Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy [3].
In summary, the global efforts to reduce plastic consumption face significant challenges due to the expansion of petrochemical production, particularly in China. The impasse in the treaty negotiations highlights the need for reconciling competing interests to align petrochemical production trends with plastic pollution reduction goals.
| Aspect | Efforts | Challenges | |----------------------------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | Plastic production | Treaty negotiations aiming to cap production and cut consumption[1][2] | Resistance by oil & gas producers to production limits (including China)[3] | | Waste management | Promote reuse, recycling, mechanical recycling, and circularity[1][3] | Plastic waste projection rising, limited global recycling capacity[2] | | Emissions and feedstocks | Shift to alternative feedstocks and clean energy in plastics production[1] | Large investments in fossil-based petrochemical expansion continue |
[1] United Nations, 2025 [2] World Economic Forum, 2025 [3] The Guardian, 2025
- The global treaty process faces a significant challenge as the expansion of petrochemical production, particularly in China and other oil-producing nations, conflicts with the aim to curb plastic production and address plastic pollution.
- In order to effectively tackle plastic waste, it's crucial to reconcile the economic interests of oil-producing nations with environmental goals, considering the ongoing investments in fossil-based petrochemical expansion and the limitations in global recycling capacity.
