Estimated Japanese rice demand from the current year until June next year is forecasted to reach a peak of 7.1 million metric tons.
Japan's Rice Demand Estimation Subcommittee Releases New Staple Rice Demand Projections
The Rice Demand Estimation Subcommittee, a subgroup within the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, has announced new projections for staple rice demand in Japan for the year through June 2026. The new projections range between 6.97 million to 7.11 million tons, slightly lower or unchanged from the previous year's real demand.
The subcommittee's new calculation method takes into account various factors affecting staple rice demand, such as increasing demand from foreign tourists and declining yields of polished rice due to rising heat stress. This change was necessary to ensure a more accurate estimate of staple rice demand in Japan.
Last year, the subcommittee's initial estimate and actual demand showed a significant difference, leading to a delay in the release of the one-year estimate. The new projections were released two months later than scheduled.
The forecast for 2025 staple rice production is 7.28 million-7.45 million tons, surpassing the initial estimate of 6.69 million tons for 2024. This increase in production is expected to be reflected in the private sector's rice inventory, which is projected to grow up to 1.5-fold year on year to 2.29 million tons as of June 31, 2025.
To fine-tune the demand projection for staple rice through June 2026, the ministry plans to survey the amount of rice distributed as a thank-you gift under the 'hometown tax' donation program. This program, which encourages donations to local communities, often involves the distribution of rice as a gift.
The new calculation method is intended to provide a more accurate estimate of staple rice demand in Japan, accounting for factors such as changes in population, consumption patterns, and external factors like tourism demand. The subcommittee's projections will continue to play a crucial role in shaping Japan's rice production and distribution strategies.
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