Gold anticipated to remain within a range in the first half of 2025, showing a potential increase of between 0% and 5%, according to the latest World Gold Council report.
In a recent report, the World Gold Council (WGC) has predicted that gold prices in the second half of 2025 will remain range-bound, rising modestly by 0-5% over current levels. This controlled increase, if realised, would contribute to a yearly gold price rise of about 25-30% for 2025 so far.
The forecast is based on a combination of factors, including the global economic outlook, monetary policy, geopolitical and global uncertainty, inflation, and currency movements.
The economic landscape is expected to remain flat or below trend in the second half, with inflation projected to rise beyond 5% due to the impact of tariffs and other supply factors. Central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, are anticipated to cautiously begin lowering interest rates late in Q4 2025, a forecasted 50 basis point cut by the Fed could underpin investor interest in gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, and general economic uncertainty support gold’s appeal as a safe haven. These factors sustain demand from investors and central banks, with notable buying from countries like China and India aiming to diversify reserves amid global realignments.
Persistent inflation and the inverse relationship between gold prices and the US dollar also influence gold’s performance. Rising inflation expectations and a weaker dollar generally support higher gold prices.
The current trend of gold consolidation in the past few months could lead to a healthy pause in a broader uptrend, which would help to ease previous overbought conditions. The WGC believes that this consolidation phase could set the stage for a continued upward movement in gold prices.
The WGC expects a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and continued uncertainty to maintain investor appetite, which could further lead to an upward movement in gold prices. The report notes that the path forward for gold prices is highly dependent on multiple factors, including trade tensions, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy.
It is worth noting that the report does not discuss any potential curb in gold prices due to overbought conditions or previous overbought conditions in this paragraph. Similarly, the report does not mention any expected rate cuts by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, in this paragraph. The report also does not discuss any potential impact of consumer demand on gold prices or any potential impact of central bank actions on investor appetite for gold in this paragraph.
In the first half of 2025, gold has risen approximately 26%. The WGC stated that gold remains well-positioned to support tactical and strategic investment decisions in the current macro landscape. Gold has outperformed all major assets such as US cash, US bonds, US stocks, and others in 2025.
[1] World Gold Council, Gold Market Report, June 2025 [2] World Gold Council, Gold Market Commentary, August 2025 [3] World Gold Council, Gold Market Outlook, October 2025 [4] World Gold Council, Gold Market Factbook, December 2024 [5] World Gold Council, Gold Market Insights, February 2025
- The World Gold Council's prediction of a 0-5% increase in gold prices in the second half of 2025, resulting in a potential annual rise of 25-30%, is anticipated to positively impact both investor health and the environment, as gold is considered a safe haven and its production is less harmful compared to other metals.
- The strengthening investor opinion towards gold is influenced by various factors such as global economic outlook, monetary policy, geopolitical and global uncertainty, inflation, and currency movements, as highlighted in the World Gold Council's recent news articles.
- In light of the World Gold Council's reports stating the strong performance of gold in the first half of 2025 and its potential for further rise, some financial experts are advocating for investing in gold as a strategic approach to portfolio management, citing its resilience against market volatility.
