Government led by Ford needs to achieve budget balance and deliver on pledges to reduce taxes as promised.
In this political landscape, the spotlight is shifted from the tariff wars to the upcoming budget of the Ford government in Ontario, slated for May 15. Although Premier Doug Ford has presented his administration as "fiscally responsible" and "prudent financial managers," a closer examination of their fiscal track record suggests a different narrative.
Following their re-election in February, Ford's government's spending habits have been anything but conservative. The second and third-highest levels of program spending (adjusted for inflation) in Ontario's history are attributable to Ford's tenure, despite excluded emergency spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, per-person program spending is higher today than when former premier Kathleen Wynne left office, highlighting similarities in approach to spending.
During the last five years, the Ford government has run deficits in all but one year, projecting a $6.6 billion deficit for 2024/25, totalling $43.3 billion in borrowing to cover day-to-day government operations. Despite Ford boasting that he hasn't raised taxes on Ontario residents, younger generations will likely bear the brunt of today's spending through higher taxes in the future.
The topic of taxes raises another issue. During the 2018 election campaign, Ford promised to reduce Ontario's second income tax bracket by 20%, but this pledge remains unfulfilled for middle-income Ontarians in 2025. Additionally, Ontario possesses the third-highest combined (federal/provincial) top income tax rate in North America, which hinders the attraction and retention of high-skilled workers, entrepreneurs, and investment crucial for prosperity.
Furthermore, despite Ford's commitment to reduce the province's business income tax rate, it remains at 11.5% today – seven years after the promise was made. The Ford government should consider lowering income taxes for both individuals and businesses, fostering economic activity and investment, especially since uncertain times lie ahead.
Unfortunately, the Ford government's upcoming budget is likely to continue along the same tax-and-spend trajectory. The government's election platform promised tens of billions in new spending on infrastructure and programs, potentially billions more aimed at mitigating any damage caused by US President Donald Trump's tariffs, without any commitments to lower income tax rates.
In summary, Ford's fiscal record demonstrates none of the proclaimed prudence; instead, his administration's approach to handling taxpayer funds has been characterized by excessive spending and expecting happiness despite unfulfilled promises and increasing burdens on future generations. The Ford government must embrace fiscal responsibility, reduce spending, balance the budget, and fulfill Ford's unmet commitments to cut taxes. A fiscally responsible, pro-growth approach will serve Ontario well amid uncertainties and in the long term.
Jake Fuss and Grady Munro are fiscal policy analysts at the Fraser Institute.
Opinion articles reflect the author's perspectives and judgments about facts, data, and events. This article offers a critical assessment of the fiscal record of the Ford government in Ontario compared to previous governments, focusing on budget deficits, public debt, taxation, and economic growth.
- The upcoming budget of the Ford government in Ontario, scheduled for May 15, receives scrutiny amidst claims of fiscal irresponsibility.
- Despite proclaiming a "fiscally responsible" and "prudent financial management" approach, the Ford government's spending habits have been less conservative.
- Ontario, under Ford's tenure, holds the second and third-highest levels of program spending (adjusted for inflation) in its history, surpassing even spending during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Per-person program spending today is higher than when former premier Kathleen Wynne left office, suggesting similarities in spending approaches.
- For five years, the Ford government has run deficits in all but one year, projecting a $6.6 billion deficit for 2024/25, totaling $43.3 billion in borrowing.
- Journalists, analysts, and commentators are concerned about the tax burden on younger generations due to these spending habits.
- Unfulfilled promises include Ford's failure to reduce Ontario's second income tax bracket by 20%, originally pledged during the 2018 election campaign.
- The Fraser Institute, a research and educational organization, has published an opinion piece scrutinizing the Ford government's fiscal policies and contrasting them with previous governments.
- The article calls on the Ford government to embrace fiscal responsibility, reduce spending, balance the budget, and fulfill unmet commitments to cut taxes, advocating for a fiscally responsible, pro-growth approach.
