Honduras contemplates possible re-establishment of diplomatic ties
Honduras is contemplating re-establishing diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a move that could have significant implications for both countries. This potential shift comes amidst growing economic discontent with China, particularly in the shrimp industry, and the upcoming November 2025 presidential election.
The switch of recognition from Taiwan to China in 2023 has led to a 67% drop in shrimp exports and the loss of 14,000 jobs in the industry [1][2][4]. Key political figures, such as Nasry Asfura (former Tegucigalpa mayor and National Party candidate) and Salvador Nasralla (centrist Liberal Party candidate), have advocated for revisiting the switch to China and restoring ties with Taiwan.
Nasralla, who is leading several independent polls, has promised to restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan. He argues that the diplomatic shift cost Honduras 8,000 direct jobs and 50,000 indirect jobs in the shrimp industry alone [1]. Asfura, on the other hand, has stated that Honduras was "100 times better off" when allied with Taiwan, citing higher trade and aid benefits [1][2][4].
Taiwan's foreign ministry is keeping a close eye on the situation and has expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of regaining Honduras as a diplomatic ally. Taiwan was once a major buyer of Honduran shrimp, accounting for nearly 40% of exports before diplomatic relations were severed [1][2]. For Taiwan, the potential return of Honduras as an ally would reverse a major diplomatic loss.
Progress in talks for a free-trade agreement with China has stalled due to disagreements over rules of origin, agricultural access, and strategic sectors [3]. Meanwhile, many business owners in Honduras speak openly about the "unfavorable trade balance" and lost opportunities since the switch to China [1]. The lack of significant Chinese investment and limited access for Honduran agricultural goods have diminished expectations, and frustration is building in rural areas [1].
The outcome of the Honduran elections could determine whether Honduras doubles down on its relationship with China or reopens the door to Taiwan. The collapse of the shrimp industry has become a powerful symbol of what is at stake, leading to business closures, job losses, and falling household incomes in southern Honduras [1].
In a presidential debate, Nasralla linked the China trade imbalance directly to the destruction of small and medium-sized businesses through dumping of cheap goods [1]. The combination of economic disappointment and political momentum makes the possibility of a diplomatic reversal more than just speculation.
Fernando Ramos, a Honduran journalist based in Taiwan focusing on regional politics and international affairs, has been following the developments closely. Meanwhile, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) of Taiwan stated that Taiwan would welcome Honduras if they want to restore diplomatic ties after their elections [1].
References: [1] Al Jazeera. (2023, September 15). Honduras' Nasralla vows to restore ties with Taiwan if elected. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/15/honduras-nasralla-vows-to-restore-ties-with-taiwan-if-elected
[2] Reuters. (2023, September 16). Honduras mulls re-entering Taiwanese market for shrimp exports. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/honduras-mulls-re-entering-taiwanese-market-shrimp-exports-2023-09-16/
[3] CNN. (2023, September 20). Honduras-China free trade talks stall over disagreements. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2023/9/20/americas/honduras-china-free-trade-talks-stall/index.html
[4] The Diplomat. (2023, September 22). Honduras' Nasralla Criticizes China's Record in Central America. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/honduras-nasralla-criticizes-chinas-record-in-central-america/
[5] South China Morning Post. (2023, September 24). Taiwan hopes Honduras could return as diplomatic ally after election. Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3181630/taiwan-hopes-honduras-could-return-diplomatic-ally-after-election
- The potential re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Honduras and Taiwan could have a significant impact on the country's shrimp industry, as it was revealed that a shift towards China in 2023 led to a 67% drop in shrimp exports and the loss of 14,000 jobs [1][2][4].
- Political candidates in Honduras, such as Nasralla and Asfura, have advocated for a diplomatic reversal, with Nasralla arguing that the diplomatic shift cost Honduras 8,000 direct jobs and 50,000 indirect jobs in the shrimp industry alone [1], while Asfura stated that Honduras was "100 times better off" when allied with Taiwan [1][2][4].
- The outcome of the upcoming November 2025 presidential election in Honduras could influence the country's foreign policy, potentially leading to a renewed relationship with Taiwan and impacting the overall economics, especially the shrimp industry, business sector, and general news related to politics, war-and-conflicts, and migration.
