Imprisoned yet re-elected: Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Philippines, secures victory in election while detained in The Hague court
The arrest of Rodrigo Duterte at the International Criminal Court didn't dampen the spirits of his political clan, as his daughter, Sara Duterte, was elected as mayor of their hometown, Davao City, in the recent midterm elections. This revival of the Duterte dynasty could have profound implications for the Philippines and the South China Sea, given Sara Duterte's potential presidential run in 2028.
Revitalizing the Duterte family's political fortunes, these elections showcased their ongoing dominance, with activist Maria Victoria Maglana admitting that they were taken aback by the intense support for the family, both locally and nationally. The support was driven by sympathy for the aging former president, who was arrested by Philippine authorities and handed over to the ICC for his controversial anti-drug campaign, and perceptions of his family being persecuted by the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Some even believed it might be Duterte's final race, prompting them to express their gratitude through their vote.
Sara Duterte, who took the position of vice president in 2022 through an electoral pact with Marcos, is not free from legal scrutiny, facing separate investigations in Manila for alleged misuse of government funds and impeachment charges from Marcos' allies. If convicted, she would be barred from politics indefinitely—a hurdle she'll have to navigate as her trial begins in July.
The Dutertes need nine senators to oppose impeachment or abstain from a vote in order to avoid her removal from office. It seems that they have found at least eight supporters, with the numbers suggestive of a promising outcome for Sara Duterte. However, the fluidity of Filipino politics could cause changes closer to the vote, as seen by the defection of Imee Marcos, a senator and President Marcos' sister, to support the Dutertes in the midterm polls.
If elected, a Sara Duterte presidency could see the Philippines cultivating a closer relationship with China, which may contrast sharply with Marcos' assertive stance against China's territorial claims in the South China Sea and strengthened defense ties with the US and its allies. However, any such alignment with China could face domestic criticism and concerns from regional allies regarding Chinese assertiveness and the protection of Philippine sovereignty.
In essence, Sara Duterte's potential presidency in 2028 implies a continuation of the family's China-engagement approach, affecting the Philippines' stance on South China Sea disputes, regional security dynamics, and ASEAN's collective position.[1][2][3]
- Sara Duterte's potential presidential run in 2028 could lead to significant policy-and-legislation changes, especially concerning finance with potential closer relationships with China.
- The revitalization of the Duterte family's political power, as demonstrated in the recent midterm elections, could have significant effects on diversity-and-inclusion issues, given their ongoing dominance in politics.
- The ongoing legal scrutiny facing Sara Duterte, such as the misuse of government funds investigation and impeachment charges, could impact the general-news landscape, particularly involving crime-and-justice issues.
- Migration patterns might be influenced by the potential Sara Duterte presidency, especially if her policies follow the family's China-engagement approach, which could lead to changes in the Philippines' relations with its regional allies.
- The fluidity of Filipino politics, as shown by the defection of Imee Marcos to support the Dutertes, could impact war-and-conflicts and business relationships, especially as they relate to war-and-conflicts over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
