Increased Probability of ETF Approval for XRP, Litecoin, and Solana, According to Analysts at 95%
After facing delays due to concerns about its offering structure, the REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF is set to make a comeback, with the first U.S.-based staked crypto ETF launching on Wednesday. This marks the beginning of a potential wave of crypto ETF approvals, according to industry analysts.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make decisions on spot ETF proposals for XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Solana (SOL) in October, with a high likelihood of approval estimated at 95%. Other altcoins such as Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche have an estimated 90% approval chance, according to Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas.
The optimistic outlook for these altcoin ETFs is bolstered by positive engagement signals from the SEC and its crypto task force, the launches of futures markets for SOL, and new filings for staking ETFs. The REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF, for instance, will allow investors to earn yield from staking Solana.
However, the SEC has yet to move forward with Ethereum staking ETFs, and it has postponed its decision on the Bitwise Ether staking investment product. The regulatory body has also initiated a formal review to evaluate potential risks to investors regarding the Bitwise Ether staking investment product.
To meet diversification rules, the REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF will invest at least 40% of its assets in other crypto exchange-traded products, mainly those listed outside the U.S. This move is expected to broaden the fund's reach and appeal to investors.
Experts also suggest that the SEC could act early on SOL and staking-related ETF filings. Seyffart, in particular, expects a wave of new ETFs in the second half of 2022, with a possibility of approvals for ETFs tracking broad crypto indexes as early as July. Balchunas previously advised investors to prepare for a possible "altcoin ETF summer."
It's important to note that Canary Capital's filings for Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) have received lower estimates, at 60% and 50% respectively, due to the lack of CFTC-regulated futures products for these cryptocurrencies, and the uncertainty surrounding whether the SEC considers them securities or not.
As the SEC works closely with issuers on filings, with a deadline for 19b-4 filings going up to October 2025, analysts forecast that the second half of 2025 could see a wave of approvals, potentially including multiple crypto index and basket ETFs. This could mark a significant expansion of regulatory acceptance and investor access in the US market.
- The REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF, launching this Wednesday, will let investors earn yield from staking Solana, a form of crypto, and it will also invest in other crypto exchange-traded products to meet diversification rules.
- According to Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, there's a high likelihood of approval for spot ETF proposals for XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Solana (SOL), and a moderately high chance for altcoins like Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche.
- The SEC is yet to make a decision on Ethereum staking ETFs and has initiated a formal review for potential risks associated with the Bitwise Ether staking investment product.
- Balchunas predicts a wave of new ETFs in the second half of 2022, including possible approvals for ETFs tracking broad crypto indexes as early as July, and suggests that investors prepare for a potential "altcoin ETF summer." However, Canary Capital's filings for Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) have received lower estimates due to the lack of regulated futures products and uncertainty over their classification as securities.
