International Climate Talks in Brazil Face Intensified Pressure as United States Opt Out of COP30 Conference
The upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Brazil is set to be a pivotal moment in the global fight against climate change. Despite significant challenges, including the absence of the US and the UNFCCC's funding and legitimacy crises, COP30 aims to revitalize global climate multilateralism, achieve progress in climate negotiations, and provide a stronger platform for civil society engagement.
One of the key elements shaping COP30's expected outcomes is the focus on scaling climate finance for developing countries. The goal is to reach $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, with Brazil and the UN Secretary-General hosting a summit in September 2025 to push climate ambition ahead of COP30. However, concerns remain about the risk that revenues from CO2 trading will overshadow or even replace the need for actual public climate finance.
Another priority for Brazil's COP30 presidency is climate adaptation. The discussion will focus on advancing the Global Goal on Adaptation and agreeing upon indicators. The establishment of a Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) at COP28, while significant, is currently underfunded and is expected to present a long-term fundraising strategy before COP30.
The geopolitical vacuum created by the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement poses challenges for global climate finance and commitments, as the US historically has the greatest emissions responsibility. COP30 will be the first since the US began its withdrawal (effective January 2026) and has already abstained from recent interim negotiations.
The UNFCCC faces a legitimacy and funding crisis, with calls to reform it for greater effectiveness and transparency, especially to reduce fossil fuel industry influence and enhance civil society participation. COP30 is expected to counterbalance prior years’ restrictions on freedoms of expression and assembly, crucial for a credible multilateral process.
Pre-COP30 initiatives, like the WHO-hosted Global Conference on Climate and Health in Brazil, aim to integrate health as a core climate action pillar, contributing concrete inputs to a draft Belém Health Action Plan as part of COP30 outcomes.
The COP30 presidency is facing challenges such as threats of foreign policy upheavals, political tensions surrounding former President Bolsonaro, and logistical issues related to accommodating the large climate conference. Despite these challenges, Brazil seeks to demonstrate leadership and host a COP that includes extensive participation of civil society and social movements, aiming to turn the Amazonian city of Belém into the global center for decisive climate actions for the coming decade.
The implementation of international carbon markets under Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement has been adopted at COP29, allowing for large-scale climate emissions trading, known as offsetting. The rules for bilateral CO2 trading under Article 6.2 are weaker, with governments able to agree among themselves whatever they want and no requirement for transparency or oversight. This raises concerns that international carbon markets may exacerbate the climate crisis.
The first Global Stocktake ended in Dubai in 2023, and discussions in Belém will focus on whether loss and damage should be included as a separate topic in the stocktake in the future, as well as the role of science and the IPCC.
In summary, while COP30 faces significant external challenges, it is expected to push forward on climate finance, strengthen multilateralism, promote inclusivity, and embed health into climate policy frameworks, with Brazil playing a central and constructive role. The ICJ opinion that all states are obligated under international law to protect the climate and ensure a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment adds weight to these efforts. However, the success of COP30 will depend on addressing the risks posed by international carbon markets, the UNFCCC's funding and legitimacy crises, and the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
- The implementation of international carbon markets at COP29, aimed at large-scale climate emissions trading, may exacerbate the climate crisis due to the weaker rules for bilateral CO2 trading under Article 6.2, with governments able to agree among themselves without transparency or oversight.
- In the field of environmental science, the first Global Stocktake concluded in Dubai in 2023, and the discussion in Belém will focus on including loss and damage as a separate topic in the stocktake, as well as the role of science and the IPCC.
- Climate negotiations at COP30 will prioritize addressing the funding and legitimacy crises of the UNFCCC, with calls for reform to reduce fossil fuel industry influence, increase transparency, and enhance civil society participation.
- Geopolitical challenges emerge as the US, with its significant historical emissions responsibility, will have abstained from COP30, marking the first conference since its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which becomes effective in January 2026.
- The upcoming WHO-hosted Global Conference on Climate and Health in Brazil aims to integrate health as a core climate action pillar, contributing to the creation of a draft Belém Health Action Plan as part of COP30 outcomes, thereby transforming the Amazonian city into a global center for decisive climate actions in the coming decade.
