Livestock Fell in Crisis on Friday, as Feedlots Reached Capacity
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Futures Show Mixed Results
The live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets have seen a mix of gains and losses in recent days, according to data from various sources.
On August 7, the CME Feeder Cattle Index rose by 24 cents to $337.21. However, live cattle futures for August decreased by $5.70 on Friday, with the contract holding onto $2.42 gains this week. The fluctuations in the market are expected to continue, with some changes in the limits for the futures contracts.
From August 13 to August 14, 2025, the live cattle futures prices showed the following trends and outlooks for the nearby contracts:
- The August 2025 live cattle futures contract fell slightly, down about 27 cents on August 13, trading near the $235.55 per hundredweight level on August 14, down 0.12% from the previous day.
- Futures for October and December 2025 contracts were generally up 40 to 60 cents on August 13, indicating some strength in deferred contracts.
- The Cattle Report on August 14 noted live sales prices at around $227 in the south and $245 in the north, dressed sales at $385, all showing increases of $2 or more over the previous week, driven by reduced slaughter volumes and supply constraints.
As for the feeder cattle futures, limits will be expanded to $13.75 on Monday, and the August feeder cattle futures are still $4.82 higher this week.
Looking ahead, Trading Economics projects live cattle prices to reach around $238.86 per cwt by the end of Q3 2025 and to increase to $247.78 in 12 months (mid-2026), indicating a continuing upward trend. Market commentary suggests futures may find further support as boxed beef prices surged and demand remains strong despite reduced slaughter numbers, with analysts noting that packers may need to raise bids to secure cattle.
In other news, the CFTC data showed a total of 2,944 contracts were trimmed from the spec fund net long in live cattle futures and options as of August 5. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was net long 37,079 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 1,953 contracts on the week.
USDA estimated cattle slaughter for this week was 536,000 head, down 51,582 head compared to the same week in 2024. There were no deliveries issued for August live cattle on Friday.
It's important to note that all information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more details, please view the website's Disclosure Policy.
Here's a summary of price changes and near-term outlook for 2025 contracts:
| Contract Month | Recent Price Movement | Price Level / Forecast | |----------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------| | August 2025 | Fell ~27 cents on Aug 13, down 0.12% Aug 14 | $235.55 per cwt (Aug 14 actual) | | October 2025 | Up 40-60 cents on Aug 13 | Not specified, implied higher | | December 2025 | Up 40-60 cents on Aug 13 | Not specified, implied higher | | Q3 2025 End | — | ~$238.86 (forecast) | | 12-month out | — | ~$247.78 (forecast for mid-2026)|
This reflects a bullish medium-term outlook driven by supply constraints, strong demand, and elevated boxed beef prices.
[1] Trading Economics (2025). Live Cattle Futures Prices. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle-futures [2] USDA (2025). Cattle on Feed Report. Retrieved from https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/livestock/reports [3] CME Group (2025). Live Cattle Futures. Retrieved from https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/livestock/cattle/index.html [4] USDA (2025). Boxed Beef Prices. Retrieved from https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/livestock/boxed-beef-prices [5] Farm Futures (2025). Live Cattle Market Commentary. Retrieved from https://www.farmfutures.com/markets/cattle/live-cattle-market-commentary
In light of the bullish medium-term outlook for live cattle futures, some individuals may choose to invest in this market as part of their financial plans, aligning with a broader lifestyle that values sustainable and healthy food-and-drink options. Meanwhile, the expanded limits for feeder cattle futures could present business opportunities for farmers planning to purchase feeder cattle in the near future.
