Mortgage loan counts plummeted by nearly a triple-digit rate.
A rough start to 2025 for the Novosibirsk region's housing market
Oh boy, the first quarter of 2025 kicked our asses in the Novosibirsk region, according to Sergei Nikolaev, a local analyst and chatterbox on the Telegram channel "ROP| Ratings. Estimates. Forecasts."
In Q1 2025, the region dished out a measly 3,000 mortgage housing loans to folks, with only 1,628 of those being under DUU agreements. To put that in perspective, back in 2019-2024, the average number of loans was significantly higher.
So, how did the numbers stack up? Well, the total mortgage loans tanked by 2.91 times, the market loans collapsed by 4.32 times, and DUU loans dropped by 42%.
Nikolaev isn't pulling any punches - he believes this was the most dismal quarter in the last seven years, both for our region and for the entire country. And he's got a bone to pick with the leading banks. According to him, the banks are merely pretending to lower interest rates on market programs and boost mortgages, all while quietly padding their pockets with end-of-year dividends and bonuses for top brass.
The expert's got a point - with the total amount of personal deposits outweighing loans by a mile, it's questionable whether the banks can complete all ongoing projects in the face of a slumping market.
It could be a mix of factors at play, like economic pressures from the war, shifts in the construction sector, currency fluctuations, and changes in population dynamics, although I haven't got the goods to back up those theories. To really nail down the regional analysis, we'd need some serious numbers from the Russian Central Bank or Novosibirsk's housing authorities, but that's another story.
Sources:
- Sergei Nikolaev, Practicing analyst in new construction, author of Telegram channel "ROP| Ratings. Estimates. Forecasts".
- Novosibirsk region mortgage housing loan data for Q1 2025.
- In contrast to the average participation in previous years, the Novosibirsk region saw a significant decrease in mortgage housing loans in 2025, with only 3,000 loans distributed, a drop of 2.91 times.
- Despite the struggling housing market in Novosibirsk, local analyst Sergei Nikolaev criticizes leading banks for not increasing mortgages as promised, instead focusing on boosting end-of-year dividends and bonuses for top executives.
- By Q1 2025, the Novosibirsk region experienced its worst quarter in real-estate investments over the last seven years, according to Nikolaev, leading to concerns about the banks' ability to complete ongoing projects amidst financial hardships.
- With personal deposit amounts exceeding loans in the Novosibirsk region, experts like Nikolaev question the banks' commitment to invest in the region's housing market, despite the slump.
- As the region grapples with a slowing economy, shifts in the construction industry, currency fluctuations, and changes in population dynamics, the full impact on the housing market requires further investigation, specifically through financial data from the Russian Central Bank or Novosibirsk's housing authorities.
