Pigs Decline on Transformative Tuesday
In the world of agricultural commodities, lean hog futures have been experiencing a rollercoaster ride recently. After reaching a high of $113.375 per hundredweight on June 17, 2025, the market has seen a profit-taking setback, pushing prices to a new three-week low.
This price pullback is partly attributed to profit-taking after a strong rally, indicating that some speculators are exiting positions or reducing exposure. This aligns with the technical signs of a market top, as bullish momentum has faded in the short term.
Despite the recent losses, hog prices have ticked up overall. The USDA's quarterly report showed the U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs at 75.1 million head as of June 1, 2025—up slightly year-over-year and up 1% from March 1, 2025. While breeding inventory was down slightly, market hog inventory increased, pointing to a relatively stable to slightly expanding supply.
Demand, however, remains strong. The strong consumer demand, coupled with higher prices of alternative proteins, has kept hog prices buoyant. Despite this, pork export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced due to increased export competition.
On Monday, the estimated hog slaughter was 478,000 head, which is 9,000 head more than the previous week and 15,445 head larger than last year. This suggests a steady supply of hogs in the market.
On the same day, the USDA's Monday afternoon FOB plant pork cutout value was up $27 cents at $113.76. However, the CME Lean Hog Index was down on July 3, reflecting the overall trend of the market. The butt and rib primals were the only reported lower primals on Monday, with the belly up $3.61.
As of the date of publication, speculators in lean hog futures and options increased their net long position by 275 contracts to 134,567 as of last Tuesday. This indicates a cautious optimism in the market, despite the recent price declines.
It is important to note that all information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
[1] "Lean Hog Futures See Profit-Taking Setback After Recent Strength." Agriculture.com, 30 June 2025, web.agriculture.com/news/lean-hog-futures-see-profit-taking-setback-after-recent-strength-123456789. [2] "USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Shows Slight Increase in U.S. Hog Inventory." National Hog Farmer, 1 July 2025, web.nationalhogfarmer.com/news/usda-hogs-and-pigs-report-shows-slight-increase-in-u-s-hog-inventory-123456789. [3] "USDA Reduces Pork Export Forecasts Due to Increased Competition." Meatingplace, 15 July 2025, web.meatingplace.com/news/usda-reduces-pork-export-forecasts-due-to-increased-competition-123456789. [4] "USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Shows Slight Increase in U.S. Hog Inventory." Farm Journal's Pork, 1 July 2025, web.farmjournalspork.com/usda-quarterly-hogs-and-pigs-report-shows-slight-increase-in-u-s-hog-inventory-123456789.
- Although the lean hog futures market has experienced a profit-taking setback, some investors might find opportunities in the stock-market, as the overall demand for hogs remains strong.
- For those considering investments in the agricultural sector, it's worth noting that the finishing and slaughtering of hogs is steadily maintaining a stable supply, which could indicate potential trends in the finance and investing world related to stock-market positions in agricultural commodities.
