Pigs Experience Retreat on Thursday
Latest Trends in Lean Hog Futures Show Volatility and Declining Prices
The lean hog futures market in mid-2025 is experiencing a period of volatility, with prices generally showing declines amid shifting supply and demand conditions.
In the week ending August 5, the CME Lean Hog Index stood at $109.60, a slight decrease from the previous week. August 2025 lean hog futures closed around $109.55, slipping from recent highs, with October and December contracts also declining notably.
The USDA's FOB plant pork cutout report from Thursday PM was $116.33 per cwt, a decrease from the picnic and butt cuts which were reported weaker. The week's total hog slaughter was 1.837 million head, with USDA estimating hog slaughter at 465,000 head for Thursday. The USDA's national base hog price was $111.22 on Thursday afternoon.
The volatility in the market is driven by supply and demand shifts. While hog slaughter volumes increased slightly year-on-year, pork cutout values and prices of several cuts fell, reflecting fluctuating demand conditions.
Technical analysis shows near-term bullish momentum has paused or weakened, with price resistance around $110.00 and support near $105.00.
Global factors also play a significant role in the market dynamics. China, the world’s largest pork consumer and producer, is actively encouraging producers to reduce herd sizes to rein in oversupply, which could influence global pork supply and prices longer-term.
US pork export forecasts for 2025 have been trimmed slightly due to increased competition, which may temper demand for US lean hogs abroad.
While bulls had momentum earlier in August, recent price action suggests a pause, with strong selling pressure in related cattle markets limiting buying interest in hog futures.
Predictions suggest continued price volatility with potential for lean hog futures to fluctuate in the $105 to $110 range in the near term, impacted by domestic supply dynamics, pork cutout value shifts, and international demand, especially from China.
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August 25 Hogs closed at $108.775. December 25 Hogs closed at $83.800, down $0.725 *October 25 Hogs closed at $90.925, down $1.050
[1] Lean Hog Futures Slip as Prices Decline (2025, August 6) [2] China Encourages Pork Producers to Reduce Herd Sizes (2025, July 30) [3] Technical Analysis: Lean Hog Futures (2025, August 6) [4] USDA's FOB Plant Pork Cutout Report (2025, August 6) [5] USDA Trims Pork Export Forecasts (2025, August 3)
In light of the declining prices in the lean hog futures market and the USDA's prediction of continued volatility, savvy investors might consider diversifying their finance portfolio, focusing on sectors that offer stability such as food-and-drink stocks or lifestyle businesses to balance out potential losses. For instance, with China actively reducing its pork herd sizes and increasing competition in US pork exports, it could lead to a surge in demand for meat alternatives or imported food products, providing opportunities for food-and-drink companies to capitalize on these shifting trends.
