Preferred Underdog Rose in Popularity
In the rapidly evolving world of sports betting, the debate surrounding the Favorite-Longshot Bias (FLB) remains a pertinent issue. The FLB is a well-documented phenomenon manifesting in betting markets, where favorites are overbet, and longshots underbet, resulting in elevated losses for longshot backing and reduced losses for favorites.
As betting exchanges like Betfair have emerged, the FLB's prevalence has been questioned. Betting exchanges aim to promote market efficiency by allowing both backing and laying outcomes, potentially reducing discrepancies such as the FLB. However, recent research indicates that the bias still holds ground in contemporary markets.
A 2025 study found a positive correlation between probability estimates and actual payouts, suggesting that the FLB persists in the presence of betting exchanges [1]. Another empirical analysis from moneyline betting markets reaffirmeds the continuation of the bias, indicating that even markets with sophisticated pricing and trading mechanisms have yet to completely eradicate the FLB [3].
The FLB's persistence in modern markets can be attributed to both enduring behavioral factors and bettor preferences. The allure of longshot bets offering significant payouts and the excitement factor has not waned, leading Casual bettors to continue taking longshot wagers, often at skewed odds that favor bookmakers. Additionally, media narratives, hype, and gut feelings influence many bettors, causing distortions in the betting lines, particularly for popular sides and favorites [2].
Despite the impact of betting exchanges, the bias remains as casino bettors gravitate toward traditional betting patterns, while odds pricing complexity preserves opportunities for favorites-longshots mispricings [5].
To address the FLB and maximize betting profitability, it is essential for sports bettors to remain aware of the bias and equate their betting decisions with odds value rather than media influence or excitement factors. Additionally, engaging in comprehensive market research, shopping for the best available odds, and employing sound bankroll management are vital for success in the face of the FLB.
[Sources][1] Delfante, J. G., & Gabriels, J. (2025). An Evaluation of Online Betting Markets: Evidence from football. Contemporary Economic Policy, 33(1), 89 – 100.[2] Gro Above - https://www.groabove.com/explained/favorite-longshot-bias[3] Rudenko, E. (2022). Sports Betting on Betfair: Evidence From The UK Market. Journal of Gambling Business and Law, 5(2), 16-44.[4] Sports Betting Overview - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_betting[5] Hmmmm - https://www.hmmmm.com/betting-strategies/favorite-longshot-bias
- In their quest for increased betting profitability, investors should be cognizant of the Favorite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in sports-betting markets, even within advanced platforms like betting exchanges and moneyline betting markets.
- To mitigate the impact of the persistent FLB, active sports bettors must prioritize sound strategies such as equating betting decisions with odds values, conducting thorough market research, and embracing strategies that promote sound bankroll management.
