Projected 2024/25 rice output surpasses prior records, marking a significant increase.
Global Rice Production Forecast for 2024/25 Sees Significant Increase
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised global rice production estimates for the 2024/25 season, projecting a record 535.8 million tonnes (milled basis), a nearly 3% increase from the previous year.
According to the Rice Outlook: April 2025 report, global ending stocks for 2024/25 have been increased by 1.7 million tonnes, reaching 183.2 million tonnes. This substantial growth is primarily concentrated in Southeast Asia, with upward adjustments for Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
India contributes significantly to the year-on-year increase in global ending stocks, with its reserves up by 1.5 million tonnes compared to the previous year. China's ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected to remain unchanged at 103.5 million tonnes, the largest in the world, comprising 56% of total global rice stocks.
The report also indicates that global rice supplies for 2024/25 are projected to reach a record 715.3 million tonnes, an increase of 3.1 million tonnes from the previous forecast. This represents a year-on-year growth of 12.3 million tonnes, marking the second consecutive annual rise.
The global rice trade forecast for the 2025 calendar year has been raised by 2% to 59.7 million tonnes, just 0.2 million tonnes below last year's record of 59.9 million. Export projections for Cambodia, India, and Pakistan have been increased, more than offsetting reductions for China, Thailand, and the United States.
On the import side, 2025 projections suggest increases of at least 400,000 tonnes in Bangladesh, China, and Nepal, while the European Union's imports are expected to decline by at least 150,000 tonnes. Indonesia's rice imports are forecast to decline significantly, by nearly 3.9 million tonnes to just 800,000 tonnes, due to substantial domestic production and high carry-over stocks. The United States is projected to import a record 1.525 million tonnes in 2025, making it one of the world's largest rice importers, alongside the Philippines and Vietnam.
As for exports, the report forecasts that Thailand's rice exports in 2025 will decline to 7 million tonnes, down by approximately 500,000 tonnes or 29.2% year-on-year. In contrast, India is expected to export 24 million tonnes, an increase of 33.9%. Pakistan's exports are projected at 5.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 15.3%, while Cambodia is forecast to export 3.6 million tonnes, down 2.7%.
Factors contributing to the increase in global rice production include the expansion in planted area, favorable weather conditions, and supportive government policies. Key countries like India and China are driving this increase, with Southeast Asia contributing to the overall growth. Ending stocks are also rising, reflecting a positive trend in global rice supplies.
- TAGS
- rice
- US
- economy
- production
- EXPORTS
- IMPORTS
- India
- China
- Thailand
- The increase in global rice production for 2024/25, as projected by the USDA, could have implications for business and investing, particularly in the stock market, as changes in food supply often affect the economy.
- The significant rise in ending stocks, primarily in Southeast Asia and India, might impact international trade, specifically in the rice export and import business, potentially influencing the national economies of those countries and regions.
- A increase in rice production and ending stocks could also indicate a possible improvement in health and nutrition for people in countries where rice is a staple food, thus reflecting a positive cultural shift towards food security.
- Government policies supporting rice production in key countries, such as India and China, could lead to changes in the global political landscape, as food security is often a sensitive issue in international relations, and could influence the overall business environment in these countries.
