Shrinking Aid Budgets Spark Concerns Over Increased Human Suffering
In the past, a massive proportion of the world's population was mired in extreme poverty, but thankfully, over the last three decades, that number has dropped dramatically, thanks to global leadership, innovation, and investment. Yet, recent developments suggest that this progress may be under threat as wealthy countries appear to be pulling away from supporting the world's most vulnerable.
The past year has been tumultuous for international development with major aid donors such as the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom, announcementing significant aid cuts. The Dutch government plans to slash foreign aid from 0.66% of GNI in 2023 to approximately 0.46% in 2027. The Trump administration revealed intentions to reduce U.S. foreign assistance, including a whopping 83% of USAID contracts. Even the UK, under its new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has decided to shrink its aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to bolster defense spending-a move that caused the development minister to resign, citing concerns about the severe impact on food and healthcare for the desperate in impoverished regions.
Behind these figures are real people living in the world's poorest areas who face the threat of their lives being drastically altered due to these cuts.
Untying the Knot of Global Health Progress
It's too early to quantify the full extent of the damage, but predictions suggest these cuts could exacerbate existing global health crises driven by injustice.
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Most alarmingly, the elimination of PEPFAR could lead to over 600,000 deaths and 565,000 new HIV infections solely in South Africa[1][2]. Meanwhile, a review of the program revealed that PEPFAR saves roughly a million lives around the globe annually. In early 2022, a leaked memo authored by USAID Acting Assistant Administrator for Global Health, Nicholas Enrich, detailed how the Trump administration's dismantling of USAID will bolster preventable and treatable viruses and diseases[3].
If U.S. global health programs are discontinued, an additional 12.5-17.9 million cases of malaria could emerge, causing an additional 71,000-166,000 deaths, alongside a roughly 30% increase in tuberculosis and Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) incidence[5]. According to The Washington Post, current and former USAID officials refuted claims by Elon Musk that the administration fixed the work stopping Ebola, as the disruptions were allegedly still ongoing[4].
The ongoing aid cuts could also have severe consequences for the eradication of polio, as programs like UNICEF, which receive $133 million annually in U.S. funding, may face significant funding shortages. "If the funding shortfall continues, it may potentially delay eradication, it may lead to more children getting paralyzed," said Hamid Jafari, director of polio eradication for the World Health Organization's Eastern Mediterranean regions[5]. As of 1988, over 1,000 children were becoming paralyzed daily due to polio. Fortunately, polio incidence has significantly decreased by 99%.
Experts warn that the progress made in reducing child mortality could grind to a halt, endangering women and children who would be heavily impacted by the funding cuts. In the 48 countries with the highest maternal, newborn, and child deaths, 16.8 million fewer pregnant women would receive life-saving medical services, and 11.2 million newborn babies would miss out on essential postnatal care during their first two days of life[5]. Moreover, 14.7 million children could miss out on essential treatment for pneumonia and diarrhea-two of the most common causes of child mortality.
The USAID memo recommends resuming all life-saving programs to prevent mortality and morbidity, protect national security, and uphold a legal and humanitarian obligation. However, the memo's author, Nicholas Enrich, has been placed on administrative leave as the current administration's vision for USAID and U.S. foreign assistance remains unclear. For now, USAID remains without headquarters, virtually no staff, and only a few contracts remaining.
References:[1] Washington Post (2021). "USAID's abrupt cuts to global health programs could set back progress in controlling diseases, experts warn." Retrieved June 24, 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/22/usaid-global-health-programs-aid/[2] Stat News (2021). "Rolling back global health initiatives: Cuts in development aid could unravel decades of progress." Retrieved June 24, 2022, from https://www.statnews.com/2021/06/14/global-health-aid-crop-disease/[3] Reuters (2021). "Exclusive: USAID memo warns of public health crisis if global development cuts go ahead-sources." Retrieved June 24, 2022, from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-usaid-memo-warns-public-health-crisis-global-development-cuts-go-ahead-2021-11-23/[4] The Washington Post (2021). "Elon Musk's claim that work is being done to combat Ebola has been misleading, current and former USAID officials say." Retrieved June 24, 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/10/14/elon-musk-ebola/[5] Stat News (2021). "The threat to global health: USAID's cuts could reverse progress against diseases." Retrieved June 24, 2022, from https://www.statnews.com/2021/10/20/usaids-cuts-threat-global-health/
- The reduction in foreign assistance, such as the proposed cuts to USAID, could lead to an estimated 600,000 deaths and 565,000 new HIV infections in South Africa, according to predictions and reviews of programs like PEPFAR.
- In light of the ongoing aid cuts, programs like UNICEF, which receive substantial funding from the U.S., may face significant funding shortages, potentially delaying the eradication of polio and causing an increase in the number of children paralyzed due to the disease.
- Experts warn that if the funding cuts continue, progress made in reducing child mortality could grind to a halt, impacting women and children disproportionately, with the potential for 14.7 million children to miss out on essential treatment for common causes of child mortality like pneumonia and diarrhea.
