Stagnation in export ventures persists
In the opening quarter of 2025, Baden-Württemberg's export figures remained stable compared to the previous year, with goods worth more than 60 billion euros shipped abroad. This marked the first time in two years that the region had not experienced a decline in exports, offering a glimmer of positive economic growth.
However, Baden-Württemberg's export performance for Q1 2025 was below the national average, according to a comparison with the rest of Germany. The overall German export growth in the same period was moderately positive, increasing by 0.9% compared to 2024, reaching an impressive EUR 349.3 billion. This expansion was driven by increased shipments to major markets like China (up 10.2%) and the United States (up 2.4%), as well as gains within the European Union[1].
As a significant industrial and manufacturing hub, Baden-Württemberg may have experienced weaker demand or supply chain issues in some of its primary export sectors, such as automotive and machinery. These industries are known to be susceptible to fluctuations in global economies and tariff impacts.
Supporting data suggests a broader, modestly expanding German economy in Q1 2025, with growth of 0.2%-0.4%. However, this slow recovery did not result in an equally robust increase in demand across all regions. In addition, export declines to certain markets, including the UK and non-EU countries outside major partners, partially offset gains elsewhere[1]. If Baden-Württemberg's exports were disproportionately reliant on those markets, this could help explain its below-average performance.
In summary, while the overall German export picture presents a small yet encouraging upturn, Baden-Württemberg's weak export performance in Q1 2025 could likely be attributed to regional sector-specific challenges, variations in demand from trading partners, and possible supply chain or tariff-related difficulties affecting the traditionally strong export sectors in the area compared to other regions in Germany.
[1] Source: Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis)[2] Source: ifo Institute[3] Source: German Federal Government, press release dated 5 May 2025
Other regions in Germany may have benefited from growth in finance sector, as the overall German export growth in Q1 2025 was driven largely by increased shipments to China and the United States. Despite the modestly expanding German economy, it's possible that Baden-Württemberg's below-average performance could be due to weaker demand in its primary export sectors, with potential reliance on markets that experienced export declines.
