Stellar's Event Draws to a Close? Potential 30% Plunge in XLM Value if It Loses Its Base of Support
In the world of cryptocurrencies, Stellar's XLM is facing a potential 30% correction, according to a recent analysis. This downward pressure is linked to elevated liquidation risk and weakening momentum below the $0.40 level.
Currently, XLM is trading around $0.41, just below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.30, but well below longer-term moving averages. This context suggests short-term weakness and resistance ahead of $0.40. The inability to decisively break above the 20-day EMA indicates a risk of prices falling toward support around $0.23, potentially implying a correction of roughly 20-30% from recent highs or resistance levels.
Analyst forecasts project 2025 trading between roughly $0.26 and $0.39 on average, with lows as low as $0.258 in some models. Another forecast predicts trading between $0.144 and $0.315 by end of 2025, which implies the possibility of sizable downside from current levels or resistance near $0.40.
The RSI for XLM has been forming lower highs on the daily chart, signaling weakening momentum. A potential XLM price close below $0.44 may set the stage for a decline toward $0.33 for the Stellar crypto. If XLM drops below $0.40, it would validate the liquidation risk scenario, as this typically suggests that failing to hold above critical resistance/support could trigger stop-loss orders and forced selling, amplifying downside moves.
Over the past month, XLM has rallied by 80%, but this growth may be halted if the $0.40 level fails to hold as support. The volume of XLM in the last 24 hours is $621.25 million.
It's important to note that there is no explicit, quantitative liquidation risk data in the search results, so that part is inferred from typical market behavior given weakening momentum beneath $0.40. Bitget and Coinglass data show $79.8M in long exposure for XLM, which could potentially add to the selling pressure if the price falls.
In summary, the data indicate a significant downside risk approaching or even exceeding a 30% correction for XLM, particularly if the $0.40 level fails to hold as support. This is reinforced by technical weakness around key moving averages, forecasted price ranges below $0.40, and expected weakening momentum. Traders and investors should watch key technical levels, volume, and broader market conditions for confirmation.
The potential 30% correction for Stellar's XLM could be a consequence of its struggle to hold above the $0.40 level, with analyst forecasts predicting average trading between $0.26 and $0.39 in 2025, implying a significant downside from current levels.
If XLM fails to hold above key support at $0.40, it may trigger stop-loss orders and forced selling, potentially amplifying downside moves to exceed a 30% correction, as suggested by the weakening momentum and technical analysis.
