Surge in Inflation Rates in June 2025 Reaches 3.2% in Pakistan
Pakistan's headline inflation for June 2025, as announced by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), stood at 3.2% year-on-year, marking a significant decline from the peak inflation rates experienced in 2023. This figure was in line with the projections made by several brokerage houses and the finance ministry.
The inflation environment showed relative stability after a surge to 3.5% in May 2025. JS Global forecasted a slight decrease to 3.1% for June, just below the actual 3.2%. Meanwhile, Insight Securities predicted 3.2%, which exactly matched the PBS figure, making it the closest prediction to the actual reading. The Pakistan Finance Ministry expected inflation to remain in a 3-4% range, consistent with the reported 3.2%.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.2% in June 2025. Urban CPI inflation decreased to 3% YoY, as compared to 3.5% in the previous month and 14.9% in June 2024. Urban CPI inflation remained stable at 0.1% on a month-on-month basis in June 2025. In comparison, inflation decreased by 0.2% in the previous month and increased by 0.5% in June 2024.
Rural CPI inflation increased by 3.6% YoY in June 2025, as compared to an increase of 3.4% in the previous month and 9.3% in June 2024. The Finance Ministry expects the current account to remain in surplus for FY 2025 due to higher remittances and exports.
Perishable food prices have shown a sharp decline, contributing to the lower inflation rate observed in recent months. This decline is significant as food prices are a major component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In May 2023, the CPI inflation rate hit a record high of 38%, but the downward trend since then indicates a stabilising economy. The Economic Survey 2024-25 had projected inflation to remain within the range of 4.5-5% during FY25, which, while not exactly met, is still within the projected range.
In conclusion, Pakistan's inflation rate for June 2025 is a positive sign for the country's economy, with the projections from brokerage houses and the finance ministry proving close to the official inflation reading. The stabilisation of the inflation rate, coupled with the expected surplus in the current account, indicates a promising economic outlook for the country.
- The trends in finance show a promising future for Pakistan, as several brokerage houses, including JS Global and Insight Securities, presented accurate predictions for June's inflation rate, signifying a stable economy and successful finance management.
- The decline in perishable food prices plays a crucial role in the lower inflation rate observed, considering food prices make up a significant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- As both urban and rural inflation rates have shown stability and a reduction, and the finance ministry anticipates a current account surplus for FY 2025, such economic indicators suggest a positive outlook for stocks and commodities in Pakistan, reflecting a healthier economy overall.
