The Importance of Addressing Bracket Seeding Issues in 12-Team Playoff Structures by the CFP Committee
There are 134 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. After a 12-game regular season and championship weekend, only one team remains undefeated - Oregon. This high-performing team, spearheaded by Heisman contender Dillon Gabriel, had an impressive first season in the Big Ten with victories over top-ranked opponents such as Penn State, Ohio State, Boise State, and Illinois. Notable road wins against Michigan and Wisconsin added to their impressive list, even though these victories may not have significantly improved their standing due to the respective seasons of these teams.
Oregon's path to the national championship game is, unfortunately, more challenging than the team they defeated to remain unbeaten and win the Big Ten - Penn State. This is a consequence of the top four conference champions receiving the top four seeds, a practice that the committee must reconsider.
To depict Oregon's journey to the CFP championship game, let's explore their potential matches:
Oregon’s Path To CFP Championship Game
First, the Ducks have a bye before facing the victor of a first-round match-up between No. 6 Ohio State (No. 8 seed) and No. 7 Tennessee (No. 9 seed) in Columbus on the night of Dec. 21. It appears preposterous to have the top seed compete against the winner of this game.
Although Ohio State had a disappointing performance against unranked Michigan and the fanbase remains unenthusiastic about coach Ryan Day following the fourth successive loss against the Wolverines, their only other loss was at Oregon by a solitary point, 32-31. Consequently, an Ohio State victory against Tennessee would mean a replay with the Ducks, who would then need to surpass a fellow Big Ten power twice in the same season.
Should Tennessee triumph, Oregon will face an SEC team that lost at Georgia (31-17) and at Arkansas (19-14) in the game's final minute for its only conference loss. One of Tennessee's ten victories was a 24-17 triumph against visiting and then-AP No. 7 Alabama in October.
If Oregon were to conquer Ohio State or Tennessee and progress to the semifinal, they would encounter Texas, Arizona State, or Clemson.
Penn State’s Path To CFP Championship Game
James Franklin's team, with a deplorable 3-19 record against top 10 teams in the 11 seasons of his coaching at Penn State, will have an additional opportunity to escape the shadow of that dismal mark when the fourth-ranked and No. 6 seed Nittany Lions host No. 10 SMU (No. 11 seed) on Dec. 21. The Mustangs succumbed to Clemson in the ACC championship game after Nolan Hauser kicked a 56-yard field goal as time expired. This loss led to a two-spot decline in the ranking, securing Rhett Lashlee's team in the top eleven, ahead of Alabama, the first team excluded from the playoff.
The Mustangs, granted the final at-large bid, and whose resume is under scrutiny compared to Alabama, which boasts a superior strength of schedule based on ESPN Analytics data, did not defeat any team in the final CFP top 25. In fact, the only ranked team they played was Clemson. Their sole victory against a team that was ranked on the date they played was against then-AP No. 22 Louisville in October.
Should Penn State overcome SMU, they'll journey to Idaho for a quarterfinal encounter with Boise State. The Broncos' only loss was at Oregon (37-34) in September, due to a field goal as time expired. Their best victories include defeating No. 22 UNLV twice, including in the Mountain West championship game. Otherwise, their most impressive result was a 45-24 win over Pac-12 side Washington State in October, with their finest conquests against conference opponents being limited to UNLV. (Only four of twelve MWC teams completed the regular season with an overall winning record.)
If the Nittany Lions were to advance to a semifinal, it might be against Indiana, which encountered only one ranked team - Ohio State, their sole loss. More probable, but still uncertain, Penn State would encounter Georgia or Notre Dame.
Conveniently, Oregon and Penn State could meet again for the national championship.
Imperfections Inevitable
This outline is neither disrespectful towards SMU, whose initial season in the ACC has been extraordinary, nor Boise State, a long-standing non-power conference powerhouse that regularly demonstrates its ability to compete with, and even defeat, top-tier teams. It is not an intention to excoriate the playoff committee in its debut year of choosing a 12-team cohort, which undeniably produced an exhilarating end-of-season atmosphere.
However, it is evident that some improvements, particularly with seeding, need to be addressed before the 2025 season. The fact that better-ranked teams, such as undefeated Big Ten champion Oregon, require more recognition within the bracket is undeniable. Some adjustments are inevitable when a project of this magnitude is executed for the first time, leading to unforeseen flaws and the need for corrections.
The Oregon Ducks, with their impressive first season in the Big Ten, will face the winner of a first-round match-up between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Tennessee Volunteers in the 2024 CFP bracket. This would put the top seed Oregon in a challenging position, needing to surpass a fellow Big Ten team twice in the same season.
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon's Heisman contender quarterback, led the Ducks to victories over top-ranked opponents such as Penn State football during the regular season. Oregon's path to the CFP championship game also includes potential matches against Texas, Arizona State, or Clemson if they can overcome their first-round opponent.
In the same bracket, Penn State, led by coach James Franklin, will have an opportunity to improve their 3-19 record against top 10 teams in Franklin's 11 seasons at Penn State. If they can overcome No. 10 SMU, they'll face Boise State in a quarterfinal encounter. Penn State's possible semifinal opponents include Indiana, Georgia, or Notre Dame.
The 2024 CFP bracket and seeding have been a topic of discussion, as undefeated Big Ten champion Oregon has received less recognition than expected. The playoff committee is expected to consider changes to the seeding process before the 2025 season.
Oregon football and Penn State could potentially meet again for the national championship in a rematch of their regular season game.
