Check Out the Latest from the CONFIDEX Study: A Peek into Romanian Business Leaders' Economic Outlook
The Political Landscape of 2025 Outpaces Anticipations. Perspectives on H1 2025 from the Romanian Business Arena. Launch of the 12th Installment of CONFIDEX Ensues
The second half of 2024 saw a more reserved outlook from Romanian business leaders, as per the findings in the CONFIDEX study. However, the actual economic reality of Romania proved to be a different story.
As the year began, an assortment of shocking events, international geopolitical tensions, and the unpredictable Romanian presidential elections heightened the sense of caution within the business environment. This is the context for the current 12th edition of the CONFIDEX study, which invites business leaders in Romania to participate in the survey and contribute to assessing the confidence in the nation's economy for the first half of the year.
The CONFIDEX study is a unique, long-term endeavor, offering a glimpse into the confidence of Romanian entrepreneurs and top executives over the past five years. So, don't miss out on the opportunity to join the CONFIDEX 12 survey by March 28, alongside over 4,000 business leaders who've already lent their voice to shaping the Romanian economic narrative. Notably, this study is backed by private equity funds ROCA, Agista, and CITR, known for their leading role in Romania's insolvency and restructuring market.
Despite the CONFIDEX index remaining stable at a value of 52 in the second half of 2024—much like the first (52.5)—the landscape changed drastically in 2025. Unforeseen elements on the geopolitical stage could influence the level of guardedness among managers, potentially affecting business decisions taken across the country. On the flip side, Ukraine's reconstruction, strategic investment decisions in the region, and the conclusion of the presidential elections could bring renewed confidence and opportunities for the local business environment.
Andrei Cionca, co-founder of ROCA and Agista, and initiator of the CONFIDEX study, shares his insights, saying, "Over five years, the CONFIDEX study has evolved to showcase the resilience of Romanian entrepreneurs. With optimism as a critical resource for progress, we are building a robust economy together. As the international economic landscape is reconfiguring, it's vital to understand how we view opportunities and develop local successful models. This will help companies adapt to periods of uncertainty and capitalize on sources of growth."
Toward the end of 2024, there emerged a trend of concern among the business community about the future of the local economy and their own companies. While the economy experienced steady growth—albeit at a slower pace compared to previous years—many managers expressed uncertainty regarding the prospects of the Romanian economy.
Bridging Expectations and Reality
In the last semester of 2024, only 29% of participating managers expressed optimism regarding the Romanian economy, down from the previous 34%. Contrary to their expectations, several key economic indicators show a different reality.
For instance, contrary to what 56% of managers predicted, inflation actually decreased in H2 2024, dropping from 7% in 2023 to 5.1%. While Romania still has the highest inflation rate in the EU, with an average of 2.7%, it demonstrates a significant improvement compared to the percentage anticipated by managers. The high prices hurt businesses through increased costs or lowered sales volumes, and as a result, the business community placed a high emphasis on sales growth, employee retention, building customer relations, and accessing financing.
While 1 in 3 managers surveyed expected Romania's GDP to decline in the coming months, it actually reached a record high of 1.7 trillion lei in 2024, a rise from the previous year's 1.6 trillion. In the last ten years, Romania's GDP has nearly doubled, jumping from 899 billion lei in 2014.
Unemployment rates recorded at the beginning of 2025 remained relatively stable, with a slight increase as predicted by 49% of business leaders in the second half of 2024. In January 2024, the unemployment rate was 5.7%, a mere 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month. Although this increase is not significant, it translates to a more dynamic labor market and possibly moderate wage growth.
Lastly, the CONFIDEX index reached its lowest point during the pandemic period but has gradually started to recover, reaching the highest level in the past three years (52.5) in H1 2023 and staying consistent with a similar value in H2 2024 (52).
Don't miss out on the opportunity to share your insights by participating in the CONFIDEX 12th Edition Survey—join now, help shape the Romanian economic landscape, and contribute to the collective optimism that drives progress!
*This is a press release.
A Deeper Insight
In general, information about the findings of the CONFIDEX 12 survey is not yet available. However, considering the current economic situation in Romania, it's clear that overall business confidence is running low, mirroring broader economic challenges such as budget deficits and slow growth. These indicators suggest that Romanian business leaders are adopting a cautious approach, a trend that aligns with the broader pattern of declining confidence as observed in other surveys. The CONFIDEX study, being a longitudinal study, could offer a more detailed analysis of the shifts in business confidence over time if its results were made available.
- Participants in the CONFIDEX 12 survey can provide valuable insights on the current state of the Romanian business environment, which is influenced by factors such as finance, politics, and general-news like international geopolitical tensions and presidential elections.
- The CONFIDEX study offers an in-depth analysis of the confidence levels among Romanian business leaders, which can impact various economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment rates, thus providing a wider perspective on the interplay of business, finance, and politics in Romania.
