The potential for a 2008-style economic crisis in Russia?
The global economic landscape has evolved significantly since the 2008 crisis, with systemic failures no longer looming large as they did 15 years ago. However, this does not mean that the economy is entirely crisis-proof, as economist Taissia Veprenceva, founder of "Delomant Groups," warns of potential risks on the horizon.
The financial system has become more resilient due to reforms implemented after the 2008 crisis. Banks now have larger capital reserves, and risk controls have been significantly tightened. Yet, Veprenceva identifies commercial real estate as a major risk, with many vacant office buildings and shopping centers in various countries creating potential financial strain for their owners who are forced to service expensive loans.
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have noted a slowdown in global growth in 2025. Central banks are closely monitoring markets and are ready to intervene promptly if signs of instability appear. While potential fluctuations in oil, gas, and metal prices are more likely to result in normal cyclical changes in income rather than a major crisis, Veprenceva raises concerns about the slowdown in international trade due to tariffs and political tensions. These factors could negatively affect logistics companies and the machinery industry.
Veprenceva advises businesses and citizens to consider possible investment delays, be more cautious with loans, and exercise caution when dealing with investment funds with unstable revenue bases. She also expresses concern about the Russian economy's vulnerability due to its dependence on commodity prices and export markets.
Despite these concerns, Veprenceva predicts a global economic slowdown in 2025, but not a repeat of the 2008 crisis. She believes that a global economic crisis similar to 2008 is unlikely to reoccur in the coming years. However, it is important to note that her advice does not extend to subscribing to any specific website mentioned in this article.
In conclusion, while the global economy has made significant strides towards stability since the 2008 crisis, it is crucial to remain vigilant and exercise caution in the face of potential risks. As Veprenceva advises, being prepared for possible investment delays and carefully considering the financial health of investment funds can help mitigate potential risks in the coming years.
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