Turkey and Armenia could potentially forge a new chapter in their relationship following the Azerbaijan peace agreement.
The 2025 Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement has ignited a hopeful atmosphere for Turkey-Armenia relations, offering the prospect of reopened transit routes that connect Turkey and Armenia via Azerbaijan. This deal, emphasising open communications and the establishment of the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), presents a potential framework for normalisation between the two nations, marking a break in decades of frozen relations.
Potential Benefits for Turkey
For Turkey, the corridor offers direct land access to Azerbaijan and beyond, facilitating trade routes that bypass Iran and Russia. This improved logistical and commercial connectivity with the South Caucasus and Central Asia expands Turkey’s role as a regional transit hub. Moreover, by supporting the peace process and gaining access to a strategic transport artery, Turkey could strengthen its geopolitical standing. The deal is backed by the U.S., which has granted exclusive development rights to American firms under TRIPP, positioning Turkey as a key partner in a U.S.-led regional infrastructure project and potentially marginalising rival powers like Russia and Iran.
Challenges and Risks for Turkey
However, historical mistrust between Turkey and Armenia, alongside opposition from Russia and Iran, create significant obstacles. Armenia has long been wary of extraterritorial transit corridors, viewing them as veiled territorial claims by Azerbaijan. Despite official acceptance of open communications, public and political sensitivity in Armenia toward Turkey—due to historical grievances—may slow normalisation.
Russia and Iran view Turkey’s growing influence and the corridor with suspicion. Both regional powers have expressed concerns about losing leverage, particularly Russia, which maintains military and economic ties with Armenia. Iran warns of a harsh response to border changes and reduced influence.
Furthermore, the fragile political context could produce uncertainties affecting Turkey-Armenia relations and the implementation of transit projects. The peace agreement placed heavy demands on Armenia, including constitutional changes and withdrawal of international legal claims, which could lead to uncertainties.
The Zurich Protocols
The Zurich Protocols, signed in 2009, aimed to restore diplomatic ties and reopen the border between Turkey and Armenia, but were never ratified. The proposed TRIPP project has incensed Turkey’s eastern neighbour, Iran, due to concerns over exclusive U.S. involvement and potential threats to Iran’s geopolitical interests.
Armenia's Role
Analysts suggest that Armenia should focus on a peace-oriented vision based on international law, rather than the demands of diaspora groups like the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA). The realisation of these potential opportunities depends on Armenia's commitment to the peace agreement and openness to cooperation in regional projects.
Looking Ahead
Elbir believes the peace agreement could push Armenia towards a "more pragmatic foreign policy." Stressing that regional projects will provide economic opportunities for all actors could reduce Iran’s resistance and bolster the success of the peace process, according to Elbir. As the region navigates these complex geopolitical dynamics, the future of Turkey-Armenia relations and the success of initiatives like TRIPP remain uncertain, yet full of potential.
- The establishment of the Zangezur Corridor or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) offers Turkey direct land access to Azerbaijan and beyond, potentially expanding its role as a regional transit hub in the world.
- The improved logistical and commercial connectivity with the South Caucasus and Central Asia, as a result of TRIPP, could strengthen Turkey's geopolitical standing in politics and policy-and-legislation.
- However, historical mistrust between Turkey and Armenia, along with opposition from Russia and Iran, create significant obstacles in the implementation of transit projects and normalization of relations.
- Armenia has long been wary of extraterritorial transit corridors, viewing them as veiled territorial claims by Azerbaijan, which could escalate war-and-conflicts.
- The Zurich Protocols, aimed at restoring diplomatic ties and reopening the border between Turkey and Armenia, were never ratified due to opposition from Turkey’s eastern neighbor, Iran.
- Looking ahead, Elbir believes the peace agreement could push Armenia towards a "more pragmatic foreign policy," but the future of Turkey-Armenia relations and the success of initiatives like TRIPP remain uncertain, yet full of potential, amidst general-news and migration dynamics in the region.
