Typically, Wynn Stock Doesn't Cash Out in June
Posted on: June 1, 2025, 2:00 AM.
Last updated on: May 31, 2025, 10:34 AM.
By: Todd Shriber (@etfgodfather)
Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions
This June, the stock market ain't gonna be no cotton-pickin' picnic for ol' Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), if history holds true.
June's here, and it ain't just the start of summer—it's also the start of a record of stock market misery for this well-known gaming company. Over the past decade, June has treated Wynn like a redneck bar stool—knocked it down more often than not. In fact, their average June decline comes in at a hefty 3.29%, making 'em one of the worst S&P 500 members to hold during this month, with positive showings only 30% of the time.
As you can see in the chart above, Wynn's historical June performance has been rougher than a NASCAR race, ranking it the fourth-worst performer out of all S&P 500 members for the month. They're the only gaming stock among this elite crew of June-busting companies, but they're one of three travel and leisure names in this unfortunate list.
Saddle up for 'Sell in May and Go Away'
Remember the saying, "Sell in May and go away"? It refers to the old notion that June signals the start of a weaker six-month stretch for stocks. Guess who saw some dang impressive growth in May? Yep, you got it! Wynn! But don't get too cocky, partner. The effectiveness of "Sell in May and go away" is tested every year by looking at the market's performance from January to April.
What happens, you ask? Well, if the market's been strong leading up to May—like it was in 2024—the seasonal impact can get muted. However, when the market's struggling going into May, look out! The average return during the following five months (May–September) has historically been -1.6%, and stocks have only managed to stay afloat just 50% of the time. So, negative momentum and negative seasonality? In this business, it's like having a grizzly bear and a rattlesnake as your crypto brokers.
June woes for travel and leisure companies, Wynn included, could be a sign of market shrewdness, hinting that feel-good investment ideas—like investing in a company based on projected bumper summer crowds—might not always pay off. In fact, those ideas can sometimes bite you in the backside.
Seasonal trends don't always stick, but there are reasons behind Wynn's June streak of horse flies. Let's examine a few:
- Seasonal Kinks in Travel and Leisure: June marks a rough patch for equities in the broader travel and leisure sphere, where the allure of elevated summer travel doesn't always translate into knee-slapping profits. In fact, investors can be like buzzards circling, waiting for these hopeful ideas to get picked off.
- Market Sentiment and Momentum: When earnings are negative leading up to May, the following five months have been weaker for stocks. But when markets zip along in January–April, positive seasonality tends to neutralize the negative impact. Wynn's performance in May reflects this trend. After a strong performance in May (up 12.74%), a June pullback wouldn't be terribly surprising.
- Macau and Industry Woes: An elephant in the room for Wynn is Macau, their largest market, where things have been as lethargic as a sun-baked jungle cat. The Las Vegas Strip has seen three months of lower gross gaming revenue (GGR) and could be feeling the pinch of industry trends.
Preparing for June's Prairie Dog Troubles
There are some varmints lurking in June that could trip up Wynn Resorts:
- Oncoming Seasonal Headwinds: Given Wynn's historical weakness in June, it's reasonable to expect a continued slump. Those pesky seasonal trends might rear their ugly heads again this time around.
- Valuation Consolidation: After a major May rally, investors may start taking profits, adding pressure to the stock and amplifying the typical June downturn.
- Macau and Sector Struggles: The ongoing struggle in Macau and the broader travel and leisure sector could create speed bumps for Wynn, compounding these market woes.
In essence, the constellations of blabspeak and current market conditions suggest that June 2025 could be a cloudy month for Wynn Resorts—plagued by seasonal pitfalls and industry headwinds.
[1] FactSet[2] BlackRock Investment Institute[3] S&P Global Intelligence[4] MarketWatch
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In the Asia Pacific gaming industry, financial analysts are closely watching Wynn Resorts as June approaches, a month notorious for its negative impact on the company's stock. Over the past decade, Wynn has shown a consistent decline in June, making it one of the worst performers among S&P 500 members for this month.
This trend may be a consequence of seasonal kinks in the travel and leisure sector or market sentiment and momentum. With Wynn's strong performance in May, a June pullback wouldn't be surprising, especially considering the ongoing struggles in Macau, their largest market.
Investors should be aware of the potential risks in June 2025, as Wynn Resorts could be affected by seasonal headwinds, valuation consolidation, and Macau and sector struggles. The constellation of these factors suggests that June could be a challenging month for Wynn Resorts, potentially impacting their commercial gaming business and overall financial status.
