U.S. Dollar Reaches New Low Below 82 - A First Since June 2024
Latest Updates on Currency Exchange Rates
As of 11:10 Moscow time, the dollar is trading at 81.5 rubles, experiencing a 2.3% drop. The greenback dipped to a low of 81.43 rubles. Simultaneously, the euro plummeted to a day's low of 88.879 rubles. By 10:59, the euro was trading at 89.245 rubles, marking a 2.07% decline.
On March 18, the Central Bank established the official dollar rate at 84.3059 rubles (previously at 85.5694 rubles on March 15), and the euro at 90.8443 rubles (compared to 93.6087 rubles on March 15), according to the regulator's website data.
Mikhail Zeltzer, an expert from BCS Express, points out that the current foreign exchange rates are already 25% lower than January levels. He attributes this decline to high exports, low imports, reduced geopolitical risk premium in the ruble, and increased volumes of currency sales under the budget rule.
The strengthening of the ruble can be traced back to the resumption of dialogue between the US and Russia. On March 18, a phone conversation between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is scheduled. This conversation follows another phone call between the leaders on February 12 and several meetings between Russian and American delegations in February. On February 14, Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiullina stated that the regulator does not currently factor in the possible resolution of the conflict in Ukraine in its macroeconomic forecasts.
Analysts at SberCIB predict the equilibrium ruble rate to be between 100-105 per dollar in Q1 2025. They consider the current strengthening of the national currency unsustainable, implying the ruble is currently overvalued by approximately 15%. According to these analysts, inflation and the expected 5% reduction in exports will put pressure on the ruble. By year-end, the dollar rate could be around 100 rubles, SberCIB predicts.
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Keywords: #Dollar, #ExchangeRate, #Euro, #Ruble
- Despite the current decline of 2.3%, the latest forecasts suggest the dollar may continue to weaken against the ruble.
- The resumption of dialogue between the US and Russia could potentially lead to a further strengthening of the ruble against the euro.
- Mikhail Zeltzer, a finance industry expert, notes that the current exchange rates of the euro and dollar are relatively lower than the levels seen in January.
- Analysts from SberCIB expect the ruble to depreciate against the US dollar, with the dollar trading around 100 rubles by year-end, if inflation and reduced exports put pressure on the national currency.
