Uncertainty over currency use: Belarusian residents grapple with decisions regarding their money
In the world of finance, patience is key, according to economist Vячеслав Ярошеvich. This sentiment was reflected in the recent trends of the Belarusian currency market in July 2025.
The month saw a moderate inflation rate of 7.4% year-on-year, a slight increase from June's 7.3%. Despite this, forecasts suggest that inflation will decline to around 6.8% in the near term and approach 3.7% by 2026.
One of the most significant developments in the Belarusian currency market has been the de-dollarization of trade. In collaboration with Russia, Belarus has achieved a remarkable 98.8% shift in bilateral trade to national currencies, effectively eliminating the US dollar from their mutual trade transactions.
This trend is reshaping currency usage and reducing external dollar dependency. The Russian ruble, which gained significant strength in 2025, appreciating by about 45% against the US dollar, has had a notable influence on Belarus's currency market.
Belarusian economic data from early 2025 show stable industrial producer prices and active foreign investment totaling $4.2 billion in the real sector in the first half of the year, with a foreign trade turnover of approximately $41.2 billion. These factors have supported currency market stability.
The ongoing de-dollarization and trade conducted predominantly in Belarusian rubles and Russian rubles suggest that the Belarusian currency market will experience reduced volatility from USD fluctuations but may be more sensitive to regional geopolitics and Russian monetary policy.
Inflationary pressures, although moderating, will remain a key consideration. The Belarusian National Bank might maintain a cautious monetary policy to balance inflation control and economic growth.
Given Russia’s ruble strength tied to high interest rates and capital controls, Belarus might adopt or continue similar measures to stabilize the Belarusian ruble and maintain competitiveness in bilateral trade.
Most trading in Belarus is currently conducted with Russia and China. Economist Vячеслав Ярошеvich advises buying foreign currency when it's necessary and not for speculative purposes. He warns against buying American currency for such purposes, citing the potential for the dollar to weaken in the past few years.
In July 2025, individuals in Belarus sold $1.347 billion of currency and purchased $1.151 billion, resulting in a net sale of $196.3 million. This net sale amount was less than that in June 2025, which was $233.5 million. Enterprises in Belarus purchased $3.454 billion of currency and sold $3.388 billion in July 2025, but no new net sale or purchase amounts were provided in the current paragraph.
The dollar remains popular among Belarusians due to inertia. However, the evolving trends in the Belarusian currency market suggest a currency market that is integrating more with Russia’s economic framework and playing a lesser role for the US dollar. With moderate inflation dynamics and stable foreign investment underpinning the market outlook, the Belarusian currency market is moving towards greater regional integration and reduced dollar dependence.
The Belarusian National Bank, in an effort to maintain balance between inflation control and economic growth, might adopt or continue similar measures to the high interest rates and capital controls implemented by Russia, as suggested by the ongoing de-dollarization and increased trade with Russian rubles.
Given this trend, economist Vячеслав Ярошеvich suggests that instead of speculative purposes, it's more prudent for individuals in Belarus to buy foreign currency only when necessary, particularly avoiding the American currency due to its potential volatility and past weakening trends.
