"Viktor Nemihin predicts that the U.S. dollar will not reach a value of 50 Russian rubles in exchange rate fluctuations."
Dollar-Ruble Exchange Rate Drops to Lowest since May 2023 Amid Geopolitical Influences
The Russian Central Bank set the dollar exchange rate at 79.75 rubles, marking the lowest since May 2023. The geopolitical landscape, particularly the recent diplomatic discourse between the presidents of Russia and the U.S., is currently a significant factor contributing to the ruble's strengthening. Moreover, increasing currency supply by exporters is also impacting the exchange rate.
Financial advisor Victor Nemikhin, speaking to DK.RU, provided insights into the probable future trajectory of the dollar rate:
"The current currency rate trends are simply a reflection of the balance between supply and demand. Decreasing car imports, for example, lead to a decrease in demand for currency. Similarly, oil prices hovering around $60 per barrel present a manageable yet weak budget scenario. This situation results in the current rate as we observe sufficient volumes of currency sales and low demand."
Nemikhin further elaborated on potential factors that could cause changes in the dollar rate. He believes that the rate may have reached its minimum and it's unrealistic to expect further drops to 50 rubles given the current macroeconomic situation. On the other hand, a sharp rise could be possible should sanctions be lifted, assuming an increased demand for Russian assets.
Prior to May 2025, DK.RU reported on discussions among experts linking the dollar's weakening to the actions of former U.S. President Donald Trump, mainly due to the slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by his recently imposed trade tariffs.
Historically, geopolitical factors such as political tensions and sanctions have had a significant impact on the ruble's strength against the dollar, causing concern over economic stability and potential restrictions on international trade. Additionally, economic factors like oil prices and Central Bank policies play essential roles in regulating the ruble's exchange rate.
Despite the fluctuations in May 2025, the ruble remained relatively stable, with the USD/RUB exchange rate oscillating around 80 to 82 rubles per dollar. Analysts predict a possible weakening trend in the second half of the year due to lower oil revenues and seasonal demand factors.
In summary, the geopolitical environment and economic conditions continue to exert a profound influence on the ruble's strength against the dollar. Any advancement in diplomatic relations or relaxation of sanctions could potentially stabilize or strengthen the ruble, although no specific evidence to this effect was observed in the current data.
Financial advisor Victor Nemikhin emphasized that the current low dollar rate is primarily due to a balance between supply and demand, with factors such as decreasing car imports and stable oil prices contributing to low demand. Nemikhin also stated that while the dollar rate might have reached its minimum, a sharp rise could be possible if sanctions are lifted, leading to increased demand for Russian assets.
