Europe Braces for Daunting Costs: US Troop Withdrawal Could Leave a Billion-Dollar Hole
By Lukas Märkle
Withdrawal of U.S. troops: Implication reveals substantial financial burden for Europe
Get ready for some jaw-dropping figures if US forces quit Europe. We're talking hundreds of aircraft, tanks, and air defense systems. And it wouldn't come cheap to fill the gap. A new study delves into urgent investments needed to keep things balanced.
The hefty price tag for balancing a possible US troop pullout from Europe could stretch up to a whopping $1 trillion over the next 25 years. That's on top of current European state expenditures, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) study.
Restoring US capabilities in air and sea domains would present an enormous challenge. Europe currently lacks the industrial muscle to swiftly build up its own capabilities. If the Russian threat is immediate, rapid replacements might require overseas buys, especially from US manufacturers, the study suggests.
The shopping list would amount to between $226 billion and $334 billion, depending on the models and quality chosen, the study cautions. Topping the list would be 400 tactical combat aircraft, which could set Europe back up to $64 billion. Next would be 20 ships of assorted types, costing up to $50 billion.
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Europe would need to invest heavily in air defense systems, tanks, and helicopters. The cost of replacing the 128,000 US soldiers (both stationed & earmarked for NATO deployments) would be an additional $12.3 billion per year, according to the think tank.
By the study's expectation, a US withdrawal would endanger European states immediately. Russia could regain its military might by 2027, posing a "significant military challenge" to remaining NATO allies, mainly the Baltics.
Pacific Pivot and Beyond
The study assumes a ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict by year-end. This could herald a US gradual exit from NATO.
Repeated signals suggest that the Trump administration intends to redirect its focus to other regions, compelling Europe to learn self-reliance, as declared from Washington. This marks the continuation of a process that began under Obama's "Pivot to Asia" strategy.
Lately, Defense Minister Pete Hegseth announced during a visit to US troops in Germany that there is a consensus on reassessing global military deployments. In a mid-April memo, the former Fox News presenter highlighted two top priorities for US troops: defending the homeland and deterring China in the Indo-Pacific region. Europe or NATO aren't mentioned in this multi-page document.
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Notes:
- Cost estimates for replacing US capabilities in Europe range from $226 billion to $344 billion in upfront procurement costs within 25 years. This expense, in addition to current state expenditures on the continent, is projected to reach approximately $1 trillion over 25 years.
- Replacing US air and maritime capabilities in Europe would be particularly challenging due to insufficient industrial capacity. Expedited purchases from US suppliers could be necessary to quickly close capability gaps.
- The study by IISS estimates that it would cost between $88 billion and $125 billion to replicate U.S. air power. The cost to add naval systems is similar, extending from $86 billion to $125 billion. Both estimates are upfront procurement costs.
The European Parliament, expressing concern over recent events in the country, might also express anxiety about the potential financial implications of the US troop withdrawal from Europe. This withdrawal, as suggested by a study, could leave a billion-dollar hole in the continent's finances, with upfront procurement costs for replacing US capabilities ranging from $226 billion to $344 billion over 25 years.
